China-Philippines tensions, weak economic data, and trade wars
China-Philippines tensions, weak economic data, and trade wars
+ Chinese carriers increase flights, driving down Asia airfares
Welcome to another edition of What’s Happening in China, your weekly roundup of the latest news and developments from the country.
I hope you're having a fantastic weekend. It's hard to believe we're already past mid-August.
Today's issue may be cut off in your inbox. Click here for the full content.
Before we begin, please remember to like, comment, restack, or share this newsletter with friends, family, and colleagues. Your support helps us grow and reach more people.
Let’s get into it.
Was this forwarded to you? You can click here to get What’s Happening in China delivered straight to your inbox every Saturday.
THROUGH THE LENS
IN FOCUS
I. Military-Civil Fusion With Chinese Characteristics
Through military-civil fusion, the party seeks to align the entire Chinese science and technology enterprise to strengthen the twin pillars underpinning all Chinese national strategies – security and development. By design, the strategy often implicates both Chinese and foreign firms and research organizations, facilitating the transfer of dual-use technologies across borders, sometimes without the knowledge or consent of the foreign entities involved. As a form of political-economic governance, the strategy is predicated on obfuscation and values hostile to a free and open society, as well as a range of “brute force” tactics that undermine the fabric of transparent, competitive markets. Perhaps most importantly, the strategy is ultimately designed to enable China to develop the world’s most high-tech military, meaning that its broader strategic significance cannot be overstated.
Beijing’s deceptive and coercive approach to security and development challenges U.S. and other democratic policymakers seeking to counter China’s ambitions with narrowly targeted tools like export controls and investment screening measures. As more U.S. and allied firms become involved in the high-stakes cat-and-mouse game of technology protection policies and work-arounds, U.S. policymakers’ efforts to build what they describe as a “high wall and small yard” to protect American national security without disrupting commercial ties are under increasing strain. Decision-makers face a critical challenge: How do you regulate the flow of dual-use technology when your rival has systematically erased the boundaries between peaceful and military applications?
This problem is only getting more urgent as evidence of the strategy’s effectiveness mounts, when measured by the metrics that matter most for U.S. interests. It has enabled the People’s Liberation Army to develop and field asymmetric capabilities across warfighting and non-traditional security domains that could give it an advantage in a potential conflict. Moreover, the strategy has also helped Chinese enterprises, both state-owned and nominally private, to capture significant global market share in advanced industries, while also concentrating the party’s capacity to mobilize national resources in times of emergency and war. Addressing the challenge requires a fundamental shift in mindset and strategy. To maintain democratic advantages in the face of China’s growing military and economic power, the United States and its allies should recognize military-civil fusion as a core feature of the systems rivalry between the Chinese Communist Party and democratic nations, retool our institutions and policies to confront the challenge head-on, and reindustrialize our economies to offset China’s manufacturing advantages.
Read: Beyond Fusion: Preparing for Systems Rivalry with China
II. “The questions that you should be asking of the candidates for leader of the free world”
People change their minds in this town for three reasons: political winds and influence, overwhelming evidence, and brain worms. There’s a reason I get excited when I see someone change their mind on the CCP threat and dive into the problem set: it’s one of the few issue areas that isn’t rigidly frozen in partisan warfare. It’s a breath of fresh air. Presenting someone with overwhelming evidence of the threat still works in China policy (mostly). As I wrote late last year, the divide on China policy isn’t dictated by red vs blue. It is a bloody mess of corporate vs worker interests, human rights vs investment, neo-isolationism vs the liberal order, and so on. You’re not going to find an administration or party platform that is solely pro or anti-CCP, and to assume otherwise is to ignore the fine print of modern American politics at your own peril. As we close in on the last 90 days of the American presidential election, I’d like to outline what the China policy debate should really look like.
Read: How to talk China in 2024 by
III. The Costs of Complicity
[…] missing from the public-facing discussion in China is a true recognition of the costs Beijing has assumed as a result of its support for Putin’s war. Experts’ early assessments lingered on dramatic potential damage to China; now, they tend to ignore or underappreciate the serious costs Beijing has incurred. China’s relations with most European countries have degenerated, probably irrevocably. In the declaration following its July summit, NATO included an unprecedentedly sharp denunciation of Beijing’s behavior, calling China a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war effort—language that would have been unthinkable before February 2022.
Frustration with China is not limited to European policymakers. Europeans who were recently very bullish on Chinese-European relations—especially those with business interests in China—now hold a much dimmer view. A May survey of European CEOs by the European Round Table for Industry found that only seven percent believed that Europe’s relations with China would improve in the next three years. More than 50 percent saw future deterioration. In a July survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations that polled nearly 20,000 people, 65 percent of respondents in 15 European countries agreed that China has played a “rather negative” or “very negative” role in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Although Western sanctions have not broken the Russian economy, the war in Ukraine has spurred further global economic fragmentation. For decades, Beijing has worked to build economic self-sufficiency; Chinese government planners stepped up these efforts around 2018 as they sought to prepare China for the splintering of globalization and the fracturing of supply chains. But China was not ready for the degree to which the war in Ukraine—coupled with growing national security concerns in many countries about technological dependence on China—hastened this fragmentation, prompting U.S. and European governments, companies, and investors to reallocate capital away from China and other geopolitically exposed markets. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine intensified foreign investors’ concerns about the Chinese market as it raised fears that Beijing could also face sanctions or economic repercussions because of its alignment with Moscow and its saber rattling toward Taiwan.
The war in Ukraine, and particularly Beijing’s decision to strengthen its strategic partnership with Russia, is also exacerbating the rifts in an already fractious U.S.-Chinese relationship. The Biden administration has repeatedly warned Beijing that the economic, technological, and diplomatic lifeline China is extending to Moscow works at cross-purposes with its stated desire for a stable bilateral relationship with the United States. But Beijing has continued to double down on its Russian gamble, including by launching a recent joint patrol with Russian bombers in the airspace just off the Alaskan coast. In May, Washington sanctioned over a dozen Chinese companies for their direct support of Moscow’s war effort. More sanctions are likely to come irrespective of the outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Read: China Is in Denial About the War in Ukraine
XINJIANG
Uyghur Race as the Enemy: China’s Legalized Authoritarian Oppression and Mass Imprisonment
Genocide Studies Program - Yale University
This report demonstrates that China’s systematic, large-scale imprisonment of Uyghurs not only amounts to a crime against humanity and genocide, but also dangerous lawfare at mass scale. It explains that the imprisonment and sentencing at a scale that the world has not seen since World War II is the maximum reach of what scholars argue is “authoritarian legality.”It calculates that if the mass imprisonment continues, the Uyghur population is currently set to suffer from a cumulative total of 4.4 million years of imprisonment, undermining the possibility of a life of dignity, prosperity, and freedom for future generations as well.
POLITICS & SOCIETY
Xi's anti-graft purge of the PLA is limited and has dubious motives
Nikkei Asia
What is clear, though, is that the weaknesses inherent in an impartial politico-legal system and the insular nature of the Chinese military as the CCP's praetorian guard mean that periodic clean-ups and cashiering shall remain the norm. Despite accomplishing more than any other Chinese leader in the post-Deng Xiaoping era in boosting the professionalism of the PLA and enhancing its joint warfighting capabilities, the coup de grace against military malfeasance continues to elude Xi.
Even at a time when the country was war-torn and poor as the civil war between the CCP and the nationalist Kuomintang was nearing the end of its course in the first half of 1949, Mao Zedong would caution a battle-hardened PLA against succumbing to material temptations -- what Mao referred to as "sugarcoated shells" -- proffered by "capitalists" in China's urban centers.
Economic conditions following four decades of reform and opening-up since the late-1970s provide even more fertile ground for graft. Where the PLA's budget is concerned, equipment expense already took up the bulk of China's official defense expenditure by the end of Xi Jinping's first five-year term -- hitting 428 billion yuan ($59.7 billion) in 2017.
Lest we forget, Xi has already placed himself in a privileged position vis-a-vis any other post-reform leader by extending his rule beyond the "two-term" limit set by Deng Xiaoping. In order to ensure his efforts hitherto at improving oversight over the party's armed wing can outlast his time at the helm, China's strongman leader will have to start doing something different by putting in place more enduring institutional changes -- soon.
For however often the regime calls on its armed servants to advance their development through reform and innovation -- as was the case again after the recent third plenum -- China's military transformation shall remain incomplete. As an armed forces that swears fealty to a single political party rather than a national polity, politics will always trump professionalism.
China needs deterrent force to protect its expanding overseas interests: expert
SCMP
China needs to establish an effective deterrent and improve its intelligence capabilities to better protect its expanding overseas interests, according to a senior military expert.
Liu Qiang, a retired People’s Liberation Army officer who served twice with United Nations peacekeeping forces, said it was “necessary” to explore military protection and overseas troop deployments, even though they are “a last resort”.
“It requires careful planning and cautious practice. But nevertheless, this is an important step in our non-war military operations, and it must be perfected, deepened and implemented in terms of law,” he said, in an article published on Wednesday.
Liu, currently deputy director of the Centre for the Protection of China’s Overseas Interests at the Guosheng Strategic Think Tank in Beijing, wrote that China “also needs to conduct regular exercises in training so as to achieve the deterrent effect”.
In the article, published on the think tank’s official social media account, Liu noted that China’s expanding overseas investments mean that it is also confronted with growing risks to the security of its personnel and assets.
The urgency has been heightened by worsening relations with the US and its allies, which have led to increasing perceptions in the West of a “China threat”, Liu noted.
“There is a potential risk of anti-China incidents, and our overseas institutions may become targets of attacks in the future,” he said.
According to a 2022 report by the Chinese commerce ministry, there are around 47,000 Chinese companies operating in 190 countries or regions, primarily in energy, mining, infrastructure construction and manufacturing. Together they employ 4.1 million people, including 2.5 million non-Chinese.
Chinese coastguard set to get new ship modelled on advanced Type 052D destroyer
SCMP
China is building a coastguard vessel based on an advanced destroyer and equipped with hi-tech surveillance equipment, according to media reports.
The ship is expected to be used in the East and South China Seas, where the country is embroiled in a series of long-running territorial disputes, most notably with the Philippines.
In June satellite images captured the ship at Shanghai’s Jiangnan Shipyard and on Monday the local media outlet Guancha.cn reported that it had already been painted with the coastguard’s livery and will be joining the force.
Its design is based on the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer but has been modified to better suit coastguard operations, according to the report.
It said the destroyer’s vertical launch system has been removed and it has a 76mm main gun as opposed to the 130mm gun found on the warship.
Notably, the new vessel is equipped with Type 382 air search radars, a model also found on some Chinese frigates, which Guancha said will “enhance the air surveillance capability” of the vessel.
Love the army, defend the motherland: how China is pushing military education on children
The Guardian
The growing emphasis on military training for civilians reflects a heightened nationalism in today’s China under Xi, who has also made clear his distaste for what he sees as declining masculinity in China, and the worsening risk that he could take the country into war over Taiwan.
“Requiring children to engage in performative military education activities at younger and younger ages normalises China’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy, and could potentially prepare the country psychologically for a contingency in which China engages in armed conflict,” said Bethany Allen, the head of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s China programme.
China-based analysts have also told media the ruling Chinese Communist party (CCP) is learning from the Ukraine war and the potential need to have a population that can be quickly mobilised for conflict.
Increasing militarism by China under Xi Jinping has raised the risk of conflict or hostilities with other countries, particularly over Taiwan. At the same time its armed forces, despite undergoing a massive overhaul and modernisation process, are reportedly struggling with corruption issues and low recruitment.
Anti-China content being inserted into Chinese students’ overseas university applications, warns spy agency
CNA
Education consultants are allegedly inserting anti-China content into the overseas university applications of Chinese students to boost their chances of getting admitted.
That’s the charge being made by China’s spy agency, which has criticised the action as “extremely irresponsible” to students while also hurting the country’s image and endangering national security. It did not specify how and why such content would help the students' prospects.
In a notice posted on its official WeChat account on Friday (Aug 9), the Ministry of State Security also asserted some agencies are acting as “accomplices of overseas anti-China forces” by making such moves.
“Foreign anti-China forces have made great efforts to infiltrate our young student groups,” the notice stated.
Scammers prey on young Chinese desperate for jobs in bleak economy
Reuters
Scams such as recruitment for non-existent jobs, false advertising and loan traps are growing in China as the economy falters, with the top legal prosecuting agency saying last year that crooks were targeting more students and fresh graduates.
A record 11.79 million students graduated this summer, as the world's second-largest economy grapples with one crisis after another, from a trade war and the aftermath of COVID-19 to a prolonged property crisis and cautious consumer spending.
A job crisis among the young could test the economic leadership of the ruling Communist Party, which has repeatedly urged people to "listen to the party".
Finding jobs for young people is a top priority, President Xi Jinping said this year, as he expressed concern about their employment prospects.
China’s Delivery Riders Demand Respect After Major Stand-off
Sixth Tone
An intense confrontation involving dozens of delivery riders and local security guards in the eastern city of Hangzhou has gone viral on Chinese social media, sparking calls for gig workers to receive stronger protections.
The flare-up began on Monday when a rider damaged some fencing inside a mixed-use development in downtown Hangzhou while rushing to deliver a takeout order. Security guards at the compound then prevented the driver from leaving, demanding that he pay compensation for the damage, according to a statement issued by local police on Tuesday.
The situation escalated when the rider — likely concerned that his other deliveries would be delayed — got down on his knees and begged the guards to release him. This quickly attracted the attention of other delivery workers, who rallied to demand that the guards allow their colleague to leave.
Video footage circulated online shows dozens of riders and other local residents gathered inside the compound, pressuring the guards to apologize to the man.
The clips have since gone viral across Chinese social media — with related hashtags receiving hundreds of millions of views on the microblogging platform Weibo — and triggered an outpouring of sympathy for the country’s gig workers.
China proposes law to make it easier to register marriages, harder to divorce
Reuters
China has put together a revised draft law that will make it simpler for couples to register their marriage, while filing for divorce will become tougher, a move that drew scorn from netizens and became a top trending online topic on Thursday.
The draft, aimed at building a "family friendly society", was released by China's Ministry of Civil Affairs this week for public feedback. People are able to submit comments to the ministry until Sept 11, it said.
It comes as policymakers struggle to encourage young couples to get married and have children after the country's population fell for years.
The proposed law removes regional restrictions for marriage seen in the previous law where marriages had to be handled at the household registration location of the couple.
Divorces will be subject to a 30-day cooling off period during which, if either party is unwilling to divorce, they may withdraw the application, terminating the divorce registration process, the draft said.
"It's easy to get married, but hard to divorce, What a stupid rule," wrote a netizen on Chinese social media platform Weibo, attracting tens of thousands of likes.
Custody ruling in same-sex case hailed as LGBTQ+ milestone in China
The Guardian
Last month, Didi, who is 42 and lives in Shanghai, travelled to Beijing to visit her seven-year-old daughter, who lives in the capital with Didi’s estranged wife and their other child. It was the first time Didi and her daughter had seen each other in four years.
A court in Beijing said in May that she should be allowed monthly visits with the child that she gave birth to in 2017. “I think maybe she still remembers me,” said Didi, who asked to be referred to by her nickname for privacy reasons. She said that the separation had been “heartbreaking”.
The visitation agreement from Beijing Fengtai people’s court is the first time that a court in China has recognised that a child can have two legal mothers, and has been hailed as a milestone by LGBTQ+ campaigners.
However, Didi has not been granted contact with her son, the girl’s brother, highlighting the difficulty faced by Chinese courts in handling LGBTQ+ family arrangements.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to What's Happening in China to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.