China vows 'vigorous' push to boost consumption, pledges more debt and rate cuts
Can Beijing reverse economic slowdown in 2025?
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Through the Lens
In Focus
I. Report: China 2025
China faces an intricate web of internal and external challenges in 2025. Economic and social strains threaten the social order, while the party-state seeks to maintain control amid complex governance issues and rising public discontent. Xi Jinping’s centralized power hinders governance adaptability and fosters new factional rivalries. Still, there are promising signs of fiscal reform, improvements to the social security system, and a whole-of-government effort to advance cutting-edge technologies. As yet, however, the outcomes of these initiatives are unclear.
Internationally, one factor has become clear. The recent U.S. election results mark the return of Donald Trump and an administration bent on “outcompeting” China, intensifying the U.S-China strategic competition, and placing further pressure on China’s policies across a wide range of issues. During his campaign, Trump floated revoking China’s most-favored-nation status, promising tariffs of 60% on all imports from China, and phasing out imports of “essential goods” such as electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals from China. He also hinted at a more transactional approach to Taiwan, suggesting it contribute more to its own security while still supporting Taipei’s right to self-defense. He remains a strong advocate for U.S. tech independence, especially in fields like artificial intelligence, which he sees as crucial to countering China’s technological rise.
The coming year will prove pivotal in testing Beijing’s resilience and adaptability as it confronts an increasingly hostile geopolitical environment while navigating extremely complex domestic challenges. The country’s response in 2025 will shape its trajectory for years to come.
Read: China 2025: What To Watch (Asia Society)
II. Are you hawkish, or are you dovish?
[…] there exists a substantial amount of variation in policy beliefs towards China among the American foreign policy community. Any `consensus' that does exist may be around the central framing of China as a competitor nation, but foreign policy elites hold a diverse range of views as to which policies are most appropriate to compete with China. In general, we find that foreign policy professional that lean Republican, white, male, or who have military experience expressed more confrontational attitudes towards China. These differences aside, the distribution of China attitudes shows substantial overlap across the two parties, and substantial variation within parties. Simply placing someone in a “box”—which others have tried to do—proved to be difficult, as many people who appeared “hawkish” on the overall threat might favor “dovish” policy positions, and vice versa. We found the space to be quite fluid overall, with unlikely allies on different issues across different parts of the ideological spectrum. To paraphrase one of our interviewees, there is a consensus around the diagnosis, but not the prescription.
Read: Under Pressure: Attitudes Towards China Among American Foreign Policy Professionals ()
Related: There’s a great discussion happening in
’s chat space about this paper co-authored by , who also started a thread.III. “It’s pronounced Fronkensteen!”
China as a manufacturing base for cars is simply impossible to match in scale, supply chains, materials, regulatory speed and intensity of competition. State subsidies in all shapes and sizes - measurable and dark – also play a crucial, if impossible-to-measure, role.
China’s rise as an automotive superpower is not an anomaly—it’s a case study in the power of state capitalism, a system that marries ambition with strategy, and brute scale with surgical precision.
The West can gripe about subsidies, overcapacity, and unfair competition, but the reality is clear: China is playing a different game, and it’s playing to win. Where do your solar panels come from, again?
Read: An Automotive Frankenstein Is Born ( by )
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Politics & Society
China to expand private pension scheme nationwide from Dec 15 (Reuters)
China said on Thursday it would expand a private pension scheme nationwide from December 15, following a pilot effort, as it moves to plug a pension gap in plans to help a rapidly ageing population.
Those covered by public pension insurance will be allowed to open private pension accounts and invest up to 12,000 yuan ($1,652) a year in financial products, five official bodies, including the human resources ministry, said in a joint notice.
The scheme expands the category of eligible pension products by including government bonds, designated pension savings and index funds, they added.
The move follows trials launched in 36 cities and regions in November 2022. More than 60 million private pension accounts were opened under the pilot program, state-run Xinhua news agency said in June.
The launch of China's version of IRA, or Individual Retirement Accounts in the U.S., comes as the Asian giant seeks to remedy shortcomings in current arrangements.
Private pensions are a part of the so-called third pillar of China's pensions system to supplement the public safety net and corporate annuities.
But academics say both corporate and private schemes are underdeveloped, while the public scheme is already under significant financial pressure.
In September, the top legislative body approved a proposal to raise China's retirement age, to allay the economic pressure of a shrinking workforce.
Exclusive: China to Launch National Disability Care Insurance System (Caixin)
China is poised to launch a national insurance system to provide care and financial support to disabled people as early as the end of this month, according to sources familiar with the matter, putting such services on a firmer financial footing as the country’s population rapidly ages.
The policy document outlining the system has been finalized by the relevant authorities and submitted to the central government for review, Caixin has learned. The national rollout, which is expected either at the end of this year or in early 2025, will expand on pilot programs that have been implemented in around 50 cities since 2016.
In China’s Rapidly Aging Cities, Young People Flee and Few Babies Are Born (WSJ)
As mines and refineries closed, Fushun became a symbol of China’s depressed north, a contrast from the vibrancy of southern tech hubs like Shenzhen. Its economy has shrunk by roughly a quarter over the past decade. The neighborhoods around Fushun’s closed mines are crumbling and hollowing out.
In 2015, Fushun started to sound alarms about its finances, citing a pension shortfall of around $1.5 billion, according to a Xinhua News Agency article at the time.
Pension obligations have since snowballed and are now projected to exceed the city’s total gross domestic product of $13.1 billion.
Fushun officials haven’t responded to requests for comment.
The only way Fushun can still pay retirees is with subsidies from the central government. But China’s recent economic challenges mean growth is slowing even in better-off parts of the country. Shenzhen’s fiscal revenue, long rising at a double-digit pace each year, only grew 2.5% in 2023. Some state employees say they have had several pay cuts over the past year.
Story of Chinese Female MA Graduate Going Missing for 13 Years Sparks Online Storm (What's on Weibo)
Over the past few days, Chinese social media users have been actively spreading awareness about a case involving a Chinese woman who they suspect became a victim of human trafficking.
Netizens trying to draw attention to this story used the hashtag “Female MA Graduate Becomes a Victim of Human Trafficking” (#女硕士被拐卖#). Between December 6 and December 10, the hashtag garnered 150 million views on Weibo.
The case centers on a Chinese female Master’s graduate from Yuxi District in Shanxi Province’s Jinzhong, who went missing for over thirteen years. Now reunited with her family, netizens are demanding clarity and answers about how she could have disappeared for so long.
This case, which has sparked emotional and outraged responses online, brings back memories of another incident that became a landmark moment for online feminism in China: the case of the Xuzhou mother of eight children, who was discovered chained in a shed next to her family home. Her husband was later sentenced to nine years in prison for his role in her human trafficking.
China gives vocational training a hi-tech overhaul to upskill workforce (SCMP)
The Ministry of Education unveiled 40 new vocational majors on Thursday – more than half of them in advanced manufacturing and digital technology – to promote a digital, marine, and low-altitude economy, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
The courses relate to hi-tech areas such as artificial intelligence, new materials, and biomedicine, for applications ranging from precision aerospace equipment to electric aircraft, and data security, the report said.
Some courses will also be in power generation, with new programmes on nuclear engineering and technology.
China has been overhauling vocational education in recent years to upskill the workforce as the country pivots to services and sophisticated manufacturing. It is also trying to become more self-reliant in its hi-tech rivalry with the United States.
Shanghai Launches Campaign Against Smoking in Outdoor Public Spaces (Sixth Tone)
After decades of campaigns to enforce indoor smoking bans, Shanghai is now moving to try and stop residents lighting up in outdoor public spaces as part of a wider effort to turn the city into a smoke-free environment.
Nine municipal-level authorities jointly released new guidelines for controlling smoking in outdoor spaces Wednesday, which specify the anti-smoking measures that a variety of different public venues should adopt.
Tourist sites, restaurants, and bars across the city will be required to add anti-smoking signs to waiting areas and train staff to discourage people from smoking, according to the document.
Metro stations must also install “no smoking” signs outside all entrances, train staff to discourage smoking, and tighten supervision of public areas to ensure passengers obey the rules.
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Powerful blast rocks residential high-rise in southern China (CNA)
A powerful blast rocked a residential high-rise building in an affluent district of the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen on Wednesday (Dec 11), killing one person and sending shockwaves through nearby skyscrapers.
The Shenzhen fire brigade said it dispatched 16 fire trucks and 80 rescue personnel after receiving a report of the emergency at the compound.
A video posted by broadcaster Phoenix TV showed flames engulfing part of the building's exterior, with dense smoke billowing into the air.
"Suddenly, there was a loud bang, and the table shook," a 30-year-old man surnamed Zhang who worked at a nearby office building told Reuters.
According to The Beijing News, a preliminary investigation showed that a gas explosion on the 28th floor of the building caused the fire, while the exact cause of the explosion was still being investigated.
Zhuhai car attack: senior heads roll in south China city where dozens died (SCMP)
Government and public security heads in Zhuhai, southern China, have been replaced, as part of a sidelining of officials deemed responsible for last month’s car attack that killed at least 35 people and shocked the nation.
The city’s mayor Huang Zhihao and Xie Rensi, director of the public security bureau, resigned on Sunday, according to the WeChat account of the Standing Committee of the Zhuhai People’s Congress.
In the social media statement, the congress named Wu Zetong as acting mayor and Qiao Lei as deputy mayor and head of public security. Both were parachuted in from outside Zhuhai, in Guangdong province.
Xi Jinping calls for wider use of Mandarin in China’s border areas amid security push (SCMP)
President Xi Jinping has called for national security and social stability to be upheld in China’s border regions and for Mandarin to be spoken more broadly in those areas, according to state media.
Addressing a Politburo study session on Monday, Xi said maintaining security and stability was the “baseline requirement” for border governance, state news agency Xinhua reported on Tuesday.
The Chinese leader said efforts should be made to improve social governance, infrastructure and “the overall ability to defend the country and safeguard the border”.
He told members of the ruling party’s top policymaking body that it was necessary to guide all ethnic groups in border regions to “continuously enhance their recognition of the Chinese nation, Chinese culture and the Communist Party”.
He also said use of the common Chinese language, Mandarin, and nationally unified textbooks should be promoted.
“We should continue to deepen efforts on ethnic unity and progress, actively build an integrated social structure and community environment, and promote the unity of all ethnic groups – like pomegranate seeds tightly held together,” he said.
Xi Jinping's PLA purges (The Spectator)
More than a year after Xi Jinping purged two senior generals in the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force unit, China’s investigation into its military seems to be ongoing, with more scalps taken. In recent weeks, Miao Hua, another senior general who had been a member of the Central Military Commission, has been suspended; while reports abound that the country’s current defence minister, Dong Jun, is under investigation too. If suspended, Dong would be the third consecutive defence minister that Xi has removed. To paraphrase Oscar Wilde, to lose one defence minister may be regarded a misfortune; to lose three looks like carelessness.
So what is happening at the top of the PLA? Is all of this movement a sign of Xi failing to get on top of corruption within the military or, in fact, a sign that he is gearing up for serious military action, perhaps over Taiwan? Just how effective have the military reforms that Xi instigated in 2015 been?
China’s Fujian aircraft carrier may be nearing take-off tests after photos show tyre marks (SCMP)
China’s military appears to have practised landing warplanes on the flight deck of the country’s third aircraft carrier – the Fujian – for the first time, based on images that have circulated online showing tyre marks on the deck.
The pictures surfaced on Chinese and Western social media after the vessel’s fifth sea trial concluded last week. But analysts said there was no sign the ship’s advanced launch catapult at been used.
Ahead of the trial, at the biannual Zhuhai air show last month, China unveiled its new carrier-based J-15T and fifth-generation J-35 stealth fighters, signalling their readiness to operate on the 80,000-tonne carrier.
Statement of the EU Delegation in China on the International Human Rights Day (Delegation of the European Union to the People’s Republic of China)
This year, we recognize China's continued efforts in social welfare, including advances in healthcare and education. We welcome the last meeting of the EU-China Human Rights Dialogue, which took place in Chongqing in June, preceded by a side visit to Tibet.
However, serious concerns persist regarding civil, cultural, economic, social and political rights. We urge China to respect, protect, and fulfil human rights for everyone, including persons belonging to ethnic, religious, and linguistic minorities.
Tibet or Xizang? (SOAS China Institute)
China’s demand that the international community adopt “Xizang” mirrors colonial practices of renaming territories to assert dominance. By replacing local or widely recognized names with imperial ones, colonial powers erased Indigenous identities and histories. Similarly, China’s renaming effort aims to subsume Tibetan identity within a Han-centric narrative, erasing the region’s distinct cultural and historical significance and marginalizing Tibetan voices, their heritage, and their sovereignty.
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