Chip war heats up as China’s top leaders gear up for annual Central Economic Work Conference
TikTok: US appeals court upholds law forcing its sale
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Through the Lens
In Focus
I. 好好学习，天天向上—Study hard and make progress everyday
China has been supporting Russia’s economy since the start of the Ukraine war by buying its oil while supplying it with everything from microelectronics to washing machines.
Meanwhile, Beijing has been getting its own strategic benefit: a real-world case study in how to circumvent Western sanctions.
An interagency group, set up by China in the months following the full-scale invasion, has studied the impact of sanctions and produced reports regularly for the country’s leadership, according to people familiar with the matter. The goal is to draw lessons about how to mitigate them, particularly in case a conflict over Taiwan prompts the U.S. and its allies to impose similar penalties on China, the people said.
As part of the effort, Chinese officials periodically visit Moscow to meet with the Russian Central Bank, the Finance Ministry and other agencies involved in countering sanctions, the people said.
The Chinese study effort, which hasn’t previously been reported, is emblematic of the new age of economic warfare unleashed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where the lines between economic policy and geopolitical strategy are increasingly blurred. That trend is only likely to be amplified by Donald Trump’s second presidential term, where he plans to turbocharge the use of tariffs as a tool for negotiation and coercion.
[…]
The Chinese interagency group on Russian sanctions reports to He Lifeng, China’s vice premier overseeing economic and financial affairs. He, who has a direct line to Xi, has been the chief architect for ringfencing China’s economy from Western sanctions.
Beijing is “very interested in practically everything: from ways of circumventing them to all sorts of positive effects, such as incentives for the development of domestic production,” said a person familiar with China’s outreach to Russia on sanctions.
Read: China Is Studying Russia’s Sanctions Evasion to Prepare for Taiwan Conflict (WSJ)
II. Tit for Tat or the Art of Trade War
When Donald J. Trump fired the opening shots in a trade war during his first term, Chinese officials often took days to respond and Chinese businesses followed every threat with alarm.
But this week, after the Biden administration broadened its restrictions on advanced technology that could be sent to China, Beijing announced sweeping retaliation in a single day. The country’s stock market investors mostly shrugged at the Biden administration’s action.
And on Wednesday, General Motors, a onetime cornerstone of American industrial might, said it was taking a $5 billion hit to profit to recognize that it was no longer able to adequately compete with Chinese carmakers.
The fast-moving developments have underlined how far China has come as an industrial superpower, and its readiness for a potentially bruising battle with the second Trump administration. China now has a manufacturing sector that is larger than those of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and Britain put together. It produces some of the world’s most advanced technology.
There are a few areas in which China has not caught up with the United States, with the most advanced semiconductors perhaps being the most prominent. But in many other sectors, including all but the fastest semiconductors, its manufacturers are coming close to ending their dependence on American supplies.
That was evident in the announcement on Tuesday by four government-linked trade associations that urged Chinese companies making everything from cars to communications equipment to be wary of buying any more American computer chips.
[…]
China’s overall trade surplus in manufactured goods, mainly but not entirely with the United States, now equals a tenth of the country’s entire economic output. That surplus has created millions of factory jobs in China. But it also means China has more to lose than the United States does in a broad trade war.
Chinese officials appear to be preparing for a world in which they do not seek confrontation with the United States, but are prepared for the two countries to pursue their own economic paths. Their preferred term for that course: “peaceful coexistence.”
Read: China Just Showed Washington How It Plans to Fight the Next Trade War (The New York Times)
III. “WTO Negotiations, life inside State Department, and the peak of American unipolarity — with Susan Shirk”
The one area that I felt was promising was the promotion of rule of law in China, because there was a big push inside China by people like Xiao Yang to increase the autonomy of the legal system and strengthen the rule of law. We initiated this rule of law cooperation. We could never get Congress to appropriate money for it because Nancy Pelosi — who was head of the House Appropriations Subcommittee for the State Department — was so hard on China. She just vetoed it every time. So we never got the money that we promised the Chinese. It was infuriating to me. Still, there was substantial progress at the time.
And that was a cooperative undertaking because there really was a demand for it in China. So what I learned from all of that experience was that improvement in human rights in China has to come from internal demand. Externally, we can shame them, criticise them, make ourselves feel good that we’re articulating our values, and play to our domestic constituencies in the United States. But in the end, have we really achieved anything in China? Most of the time: no. I came away from my experience in government very discouraged about that effort.
Read: WTO Negotiations, life inside State Department, and the peak of American unipolarity — with Susan Shirk (Peking Hotel)
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Politics & Society
China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulus (Bloomberg)
The Communist Party’s elite decision-making body skipped releasing a readout for its regular November meeting, leaving investors hungry for signs of stimulus waiting for the conclusion of two major economic huddles this month.
The 24-man Politburo that President Xi Jinping leads appeared to have missed its huddle last month, the first time the group failed to publicly convene since May 2023. It’s the latest example of China’s top leaders disrupting the party’s political calendar, after a key meeting on long-term reforms was delayed by about a year.
Investors are now turning their attention to this month’s Politburo assembly — one of three annually to focus on economic policy, although an extra month was devoted to that cause this year. While such huddles take place at the end of each month, December’s meeting is typically brought forward to set up the Central Economic Work Conference.
Xi stresses building strong, modernized information support force (Xinhua)
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for efforts to build a strong, modernized information support force, and to realize the leapfrog development of the Chinese military's network information system.
[…]
The PLA information support force is a strategic service branch established amid China's efforts to adjust and reform the structure of its military services and arms. Xi presented a flag to the force at its establishment ceremony in April.
During Wednesday's inspection, Xi said that the network information system is playing an increasingly prominent role in modern warfare, and that all relevant personnel should be fully aware that enhancing the system is extremely important.
He called on the force to accelerate its efforts to build the network information system and strengthen its capabilities in serving and supporting the military's combat readiness and capabilities.
Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun back in public as Xi calls for military stability (SCMP)
Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun appeared in public on Thursday for the first time since a report citing former and serving US officials claimed that he was under investigation for corruption.
Dong’s return to the limelight came a day after Chinese President Xi Jinping renewed his call for the military to uphold both stability and loyalty to the Communist Party.
The defence minister appeared in Shanghai at a security forum on the Gulf of Guinea, an area off the coast of West Africa. He conveyed China’s willingness to work closely with the various armed forces in the region to step up maritime cooperation, according to state news agency Xinhua.
China's Xi stresses need to fight graft in military (Reuters)
China's President Xi Jinping stressed the need to enforce discipline and fight corruption in the military, as well as boost information warfare capabilities, state broadcaster CCTV said on Thursday.
Since last year, China's military has undergone a sweeping anti-corruption purge, with at least nine People's Liberation Army (PLA) generals and a handful of defence industry executives removed from the national legislative body.
"It is necessary to strictly enforce discipline and crack down on corruption to ensure that the military remains absolutely loyal, absolutely pure, and absolutely reliable," Xi said.
His remarks come after the defence ministry said last week that a top-ranking military official had been suspended and was under investigation for "serious violations of discipline".
Xi was making his first inspection of the military's new information warfare department, established in April, which reports directly to the powerful Central Military Commission.
As China’s purge of top military officials continues, will Xi’s high-stakes gamble pay off? (Chatham House)
While the fall of Miao Hua is the latest in a series of setbacks for Xi’s military ambitions, it is unlikely to affect Beijing’s strategy of gradually wearing down Taiwan’s resolve through grey-zone operations and intimidation. Indeed, Beijing may seek to offset perceptions of PLA incompetence through increased demonstrations of capability. This year, China has already staged two huge military exercises around Taiwan and, as Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-Te stops off in Hawaii and Guam on a trip to the South Pacific, Beijing is may well respond with a third.
But until Xi is confident that a stable, loyal and clean PLA command structure has been established, it is unlikely that he would seek to start a conflict over Taiwan. The importance of success would be so high, and so vital to his legitimacy, that the gamble is too risky unless the outcome is all but guaranteed.
China’s security ministry warns state secrets being leaked in common crowdsourcing jobs (SCMP)
Foreign spy agencies are using common crowdsourcing jobs to steal state secrets, China’s top anti-espionage agency warned on Wednesday, advising the public to be cautious about the highly covert tactic.
The strategy involves dividing intelligence-gathering tasks into smaller jobs and recruiting people using crowdsourcing platforms, the Ministry of State Security (MSS) said in an article on social media. As agencies receive pieces of information collected by these individuals, the data is assembled and analysed to assess a bigger picture.
“They use legal internet platforms [to hire people] and break down their tasks, so it is difficult for individuals to understand their real purpose. The crowdsourcing method makes remote espionage activities more deceptive and concealed,” the MSS said.
Agencies have collected sensitive data about marine hydrology, mineral distribution, and energy reserves, as well as high-precision geographic information, all of which pose threats to China’s national security, according to the MSS.
Winter is Coming: Beijing Tightens Public Security (Jamestown)
“Operation Winter” has now taken off across the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Following the national-level announcements, multiple local bodies have been burnishing their successes in carrying out work under the new rubric. In the last week of November, China Police Daily announced a new column titled “Deeply Implementing ‘Operation Winter’ (深入开展‘冬季行动’),” with the aim of “reporting on the public security organs to strongly promote the measures taken and the effectiveness of the operation (及时报道公安机关扎实推进行动的举措和成效).” “Please pay attention (敬请关注!),” the authors write (China Police Daily, November 24). Local bureaus have jumped on the trend, posting their own serialized content to update readers on their efforts (The Paper, November 25).
Some of the work framed as part of “Operation Winter” appears to be a direct result of the recent attacks. For example, in Qin’an (秦安) in Gansu Province, public security officials have worked with the local education bureau to install 35 “anti-ramming measures (防冲撞设施)” outside all schools and university campuses in the county, along with other public places (China Police Daily, December 4). Other localities are deploying drones to help surveil traffic and key areas (The Paper, November 25). Patrols also appear to have increased in frequency across the country (Xinhua, November 20; The Paper/Baiyin Public Security Bureau, November 25; China Police Daily, December 4). However, a lot of the reported work passed off as part of “Operation Winter” appears simply to be standard policing—fighting petty crimes and uncovering local cases of fraud, theft, and low-level traffic violations. This is unsurprising: Local public security departments likely do not have the resources to increase capacity, especially given the current, dismal state of local government finances.
Corruption cases in China rise amid deeper crackdown, poorer economy (The Straits Times)
Analysts told The Straits Times that the spike in graft cases comes amid tighter inspections, which have become a way for officials to show that their work is in line with Mr Xi’s priorities.
“It is the easiest way to show the boss that you are doing your job,” said Associate Professor Alfred Wu of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
“But the fact that there was such a high increase this year also shows that there’s a lot more work to be done in cracking down on corruption,” added Prof Wu, who studies public governance in Greater China.
In 2023, China scored 42 out of 100 – down three points from 2022 – and was ranked 76th out of 180 countries and regions on a Global Corruption Barometer by global non-profit Transparency International, which aims to promote government transparency across the world.
But China’s latest score of 42 is an improvement by three points from its score in 2012.
Xi’s “China Dream” Proves a Hard Sell ()
Critically, more people in China are pessimistic about the future. The current economic decline does not appear cyclical, and altering the Chinese economy’s trajectory will require fundamental changes that better allocate resources and reward effort. The abolition of presidential term limits in 2018 signaled to many Chinese people that the country was moving in the wrong direction. Worse still, the protracted zero-COVID lockdown, as well as the excess and preventable deaths from the policy’s abrupt abandonment, convinced many that they could no longer trust the CCP to protect their lives and private property. Consequently, more people have given up on the China Dream, and many of them are heading for the exits.
Telling Zhejiang’s Story (China Media Project)
The answer to the question of why Zhejiang has launched so many more ICCs than any other province defies easy explanation. It is likely a combination of the various factors: more funds, more extensive overseas connections — and perhaps even the fact that Xi Jinping spent three and a half years as a top leader in the province. But the rapid spread of ICCs in Zhejiang suggests that while the top-down mandate to remake international communication is a factor, their setup is more than just a response meant to accommodate central government demands. Across the board, the centers promise to bring real, tangible benefits, suggesting they are not just performative political stunts but potential business opportunities. Whatever the balance of these factors may be, they are a reminder that even in China’s push for greater global influence, it continues to be local conditions and opportunities that matter the most.
Global Public Opinion on China (Asia Society)
Citizens around the world are increasingly conscious of China’s expanding economic, political, social, and environmental footprints. These public perceptions toward China increasingly bear on important policy choices on issues spanning from domestic governance and environmental policy to diplomacy and how best to respond to geostrategic competition. Global Public Opinion on China (GPOC) aggregates worldwide polling to track and visualize this emerging factor shaping the global order.
Xi Jinping's Archival Project to Rewrite Chinese History ()
The NAPC obviously doesn’t include sensitive aspects of China’s recent history, but that is not unique—most state-backed institutions in China do not. Rather than censorship, the primary goal of the NAPC is to bolster the idea that the Communist Party is the rightful and legitimate inheritor of China’s ancient civilization, and to bridge the gap between the Party’s own ideas and history and the history of China’s imperial traditions—particularly in the world of publications.
Whether or how effective this project (and other related efforts) will actually be in rewriting China’s history remains to be seen. As Ian Johnson has written of China’s “underground historians”, there are many grassroots efforts to keep aspects of China’s history alive beyond the reach of the Party State—in the form of small groups of dissident archivists or digital archives. Can a project like the NAPC really transform the understanding of history with a vibrant, albeit heavily suppressed, online sphere?
From Ambition to Anxiety: The Unraveling of Xi Jinping’s Vocational Education Policy (Jamestown)
Xi Jinping’s vision for vocational education has inadvertently fueled a high-pressure environment that impacts not only educational outcomes but also the health and wellbeing of the country’s youth. A rigid quota system has led to unnecessarily harsh downstream policies, indicating a disconnect between the central government’s aspirations and the lived experiences of students and families. Without meaningful reforms to vocational education, this is unlikely to change. However, given the current straitened fiscal circumstances, the prospects for significant spending on the sector are slight.
China calls on universities to provide 'love education' (Reuters)
China is urging colleges and universities to provide "love education" to emphasise positive views on marriage, love, fertility and family, in a bid to boost the country's flagging birth rate.
Beijing has been promoting various measures to try to make having children more attractive to young couples after China posted a second consecutive year of population decline in 2023.
China has the second-biggest population in the world at 1.4 billion, but it is ageing quickly, which will increase the demands on government spending in the future and put pressure on the economy.
College students will be the biggest driver of fertility but they have significantly changed their views on marriage and love, the Jiangsu Xinhua newspaper group said, citing China Population News, an official publication.
"Colleges and universities should assume the responsibility of providing marriage and love education to college students by offering marriage and love education courses," the publication said.
The measures would help create a "healthy and positive marriage and childbearing cultural atmosphere."
The state council, or cabinet, rallied local governments in November to direct resources towards fixing China's population decline and spread respect for childbearing and marriages "at the right age," although demographers said the moves were unlikely to resonate with young Chinese.
Rescuers search for 13 workers missing after a railroad construction site collapses in south China (AP)
Rescuers in southern China were searching Thursday for 13 workers missing after a railroad construction site caved in in the business center of Shenzhen.
An emergency management bureau’s statement said the collapse occurred at about 11 p.m. Wednesday at a construction site on a section of the Shenzhen-Jiangmen Railway in Bao’an district.
Starter Pack: How China’s Children Got Hooked on Cigarette Cards (Sixth Tone)
Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly alarmed by a growing craze for children to collect “cigarette cards,” which is fueling a thriving nationwide black market.
Children across the country have become obsessed in recent months with making cards by cutting out the brand labels from used cigarette packets, and then using these cards to play a popular schoolyard game.
China Wants Scooters to Slow Down. Will It Work? (Sixth Tone)
On Nov. 1, a revised edition of China’s safety rules for electric scooters went into effect. The regulations set mandatory requirements for e-bikes nationwide, including updated standards limiting their top speed to 25 kilometers per hour and their weight to 55 kilograms, as well as new rules like mandatory installation of the BeiDou navigation system — China’s answer to GPS.
These standards are aimed at improving the overall safety performance of e-bikes and ensuring the safety of users. However, experts like the Tsinghua University-based economist Li Daokui have already expressed concern that they are too strict to reliably enforce.
Xinjiang
Inside a Secret Plan to Bring Uyghurs Trapped in China to the United States (The New York Times)
“Waking up in America and seeing my family, especially my grandchildren, is nothing short of a dream come true,” Ms. Mamut said.
The story of the Uyghurs’ journey to freedom is one of persistent efforts by anguished family members and American officials in the face of an increasingly authoritarian China. U.S. officials privately raised the cases for years in talks with their Chinese counterparts. President Biden mentioned Ms. Mamut twice in face-to-face meetings with Xi Jinping, China’s leader.
China had barred Ms. Mamut from leaving the country because her oldest son, Nury Turkel, was involved in advocacy for Uyghur rights.
“It’s amazing to me that she was able to keep it together all those years,” Mr. Turkel, 54, a former U.S. official and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said in an interview. He hugged his mother on the tarmac and wept last Wednesday night after she stepped off a Boeing 767 chartered by the U.S. government at a military base in San Antonio, Texas.
‘Italian’ purees likely to contain Chinese forced-labour tomatoes (BBC)
“Italian” tomato purees sold by several UK supermarkets appear to contain tomatoes grown and picked in China using forced labour, the BBC has found.
Some have “Italian” in their name such as Tesco’s “Italian Tomato Purée”. Others have “Italian” in their description, such as Asda’s double concentrate which says it contains “Puréed Italian grown tomatoes” - and Waitrose’s “Essential Tomato Purée”, describing itself as “Italian tomato puree”.
A total of 17 products, most of them own-brands sold in UK and German retailers, are likely to contain Chinese tomatoes - testing commissioned by the BBC World Service shows.
Most Chinese tomatoes come from the Xinjiang region, where their production is linked to forced labour by Uyghur and other largely Muslim minorities. The UN accuses the Chinese state - which views these minorities as a security risk - of torture and abuse. China denies it forces people to work in the tomato industry and says workers’ rights are protected by law. It says the UN report is based on “disinformation and lies”.
All the supermarkets whose products we tested dispute our findings.
China’s Xinjiang eyes closer ties with Pakistan and Central Asia to offset US sanctions (SCMP)
China’s far west region of Xinjiang is seeking closer ties and cross-border cooperation with Pakistan and Central Asian countries in a bid to counter US sanctions and consolidate its role as a gateway under the Belt and Road Initiative.
Khunjerab port – the sole border crossing connecting China and Pakistan – in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region started full-year operations on Sunday. The border crossing previously closed from December to March because of adverse weather.
From April to October, more than 11,000 vehicles and 40,900 tonnes of goods passed through the port, representing year-on-year increases of 42.6 per cent and 72.7 per cent, respectively, according to state news agency Xinhua.
On November 26, Xinjiang officials held their first meeting with counterparts from the neighbouring Zhetysu region of Kazakhstan under a coordination mechanism between local governments and signed a memorandum on cross-border tourism.
The meeting, held near the Khorgos port between China and Kazakhstan, also covered topics including infrastructure, market regulation, vegetation and animal quarantine, and joint crime-fighting.
Hong Kong & Macao
Jimmy Lai says he opposed US decision to end Hong Kong’s special trade status (SCMP)
Former media boss Jimmy Lai Chee-ying has said he opposed Washington’s decision to end Hong Kong’s preferential trade treatment after the national security law was adopted in 2020 as the US’ move would make the city more vulnerable to mainland Chinese “interference”.
Lai told his high-profile national security trial on Tuesday that he had hoped for “harsher” sanctions from Washington to prevent Beijing imposing what he believed would be a “very draconian and damaging” law on Hong Kong to stifle dissent and destroy the city’s democratic institutions.
But any change to Hong Kong’s special trade status in the United States would be counterproductive, he said, as it could also dampen residents’ hopes for a city free of Beijing’s influence.
Jimmy Lai says Hong Kong ‘beyond redemption’ after national security law took effect (SCMP)
Former media boss Jimmy Lai Chee-ying has said he abandoned his “fight for freedom” after Hong Kong adopted the national security law in 2020, as the city was “beyond redemption” while maintaining he had not done anything illegal in resisting the legislation and lobbying for sanctions.
Lai said on Wednesday he would not deliberately violate the security law because he felt the legislation had made it impossible to counter Beijing’s encroachment on Hongkongers’ freedoms.
“If the fight becomes illegal, there’s no room to fight anyway,” he told West Kowloon Court. “It’s like Hong Kong right now, who would fight?”
Jimmy Lai says ‘too optimistic’ about HKers’ willingness to resist security law (HKFP)
Jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai has said he was “too optimistic” about Hong Kong people’s willingness to resist a Beijing-drafted national security law before it was imposed in June 2020.
Lai, 76, told his national security trial on Thursday that it was “wishful thinking” on his part to believe that the law would not be implemented as scheduled on June 30, 2020, and that it would be “impossible” for Hongkongers to “stop fighting.”
45 jailed democrats: 3 more seek to challenge convictions, sentences (HKFP)
Three more Hong Kong democrats are seeking to challenge their convictions and sentences in Hong Kong’s largest national security case, which ended with the jailing of 45 prominent pro-democracy figures.
Gordon Ng, Lam Cheuk-ting and Michael Pang have separately applied to the Court of Appeal for leave to appeal, two weeks after the High Court imposed sentences on the 45 ranging from four years and two months to 10 years, local media reported.
Jailed Hong Kong activist loses appeal under new security law (AP)
A jailed Hong Kong activist lost his landmark legal challenge on Friday against the prison authorities’ denial of early release under the new national security law.
Ma Chun-man was serving a five-year term for inciting secession under a separate, Beijing-imposed national security law. He was convicted in 2021 for repeatedly advocating for Hong Kong’s independence and had expected to be released early on March 25 based on good conduct in jail.
But he was not granted sentence remission after the new security law, introduced on March 23, raised the threshold for early release of those convicted of national security offenses.
10 years on: the older generation reflects (The Hong Konger)
Some elderly people believed that the Occupy Central movement was ineffective and would not succeed, and questioned why youngsters would choose to engage in illegal assembly. Even if they did support the protests, many of Sun’s generation did not dare to take a public stand.
But for Sun it was imperative: growing up in Hong Kong, and being schooled in a British approach to education, taught her the legitimacy of civil disobedience.
“We believed that what we were doing was acceptable in a democratic society,” she says. “In 2014, we trusted the Hong Kong legal system, believing our rights to protest were guaranteed under the Basic Law. We trusted in civil society.”
Hong Kong’s Cathay says sorry, removes Family Guy episode with Tiananmen ‘Tank Man’ scene (SCMP)
Hong Kong flag carrier Cathay Pacific Airways has apologised and removed an episode of the animated American series Family Guy that references Tiananmen Square’s “Tank Man” from its in-flight entertainment system.
In its reply to the Post on Tuesday night, Cathay Pacific apologised to affected customers after an internet user made a complaint on a social media page about content on the system that could potentially breach national security legislation.
“We emphasise that the programme’s content does not represent Cathay Pacific’s standpoint and have immediately arranged to have the programme removed as soon as possible,” a spokesman for the carrier said.
“Tank Man” refers to a famous image of a stand-off between an unidentified civilian and a line of military tanks leaving Beijing’s Tiananmen Square after a brutal crackdown on protesters in 1989.
The episode in question, “Death Has a Shadow”, is in the first season of the sitcom and includes a scene of the main character Peter Griffin standing next to a man in Tiananmen Square in front of approaching tanks.
Hong Kong will display 2,500 panda sculptures to capitalize on a local bear craze (AP)
Thousands of giant panda sculptures will greet residents and tourists starting Saturday in Hong Kong, where enthusiasm for the bears has grown since two cubs were born in a local theme park.
The 2,500 exhibits were showcased in a launch ceremony of PANDA GO! FEST HK, the city’s largest panda-themed exhibition, at Hong Kong’s airport on Monday. They will be publicly displayed at the Avenue of Stars in Tsim Sha Tsui, a popular shopping district, this weekend before setting their footprint at three other locations this month.
Taiwan
Taiwan's Lai Visits Palau As China Fumes Over Pacific Tour (Barron's)
Taiwan's largest coast guard patrol ship took part in a joint rescue drill in Palau on Friday, as visiting President Lai Ching-te fortifies ties in the Pacific where China has been poaching its allies.
Palau is among 12 nations that still recognise Taiwan's claim to statehood, after China convinced others to sever diplomatic relations with Taipei in favour of Beijing.
Lai's Pacific tour, which has included two stops on US soil, has drawn a barrage of criticism from China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and opposes any international recognition of the island.
Lai arrives in Marshall Islands, hopes for continued cooperation (Focus Taiwan)
Describing the two countries as "families" and "like-minded partners" who have long supported one another, Lai said in his brief remarks that he looked forward to continued bilateral cooperation to "build better lives" for the people of both the Marshall Islands and Taiwan.
Heine, meanwhile, said relations between the two sides had been time-tested since 1998, when formal diplomatic relations were established, and that she was confident such ties would continue to deepen.
Taiwan, Tuvalu sign joint communiqué to deepen partnership (Focus Taiwan)
President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and Tuvaluan Prime Minister Feleti Teo signed a joint communiqué pledging to deepen bilateral ties during Lai's trip to the Pacific Island state on Wednesday.
The two heads of government inked the Joint Communiqué on Strengthening Comprehensive Partnership, the highlight of Lai's sweeping visit to Tuvalu, one of Taiwan's three diplomatic allies in the South Pacific, and then held bilateral talks.
Speaking of the communiqué, Lai said it "opens a new chapter for cooperation between the two nations." This year marked the 45th anniversary of formal diplomatic ties, which were established in 1979.
Taiwanese President Lai has phone talks from Guam with US Congress leaders (AP)
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te held phone calls with U.S. congressional leaders on Thursday while visiting Guam, his second U.S. stop on a Pacific Island trip.
Lai said in a post on X that he had spoken with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries to discuss security and economic cooperation.
He also spoke with U.S. Sen. Roger Wicker, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the post said.
“#Taiwan is grateful for the bipartisan #US Congressional support as we advance peace & prosperity in the Indo-Pacific,” he wrote.
Taiwan's president visits East-West think tank as China criticizes his 2-day visit to Hawaii (AP)
Taiwan’s president visited a U.S. State Department-funded think tank and educational institution Sunday on the second day of a two-day visit to Hawaii that’s part of a Pacific island tour that has already triggered criticism from Beijing.
Lai Ching-te met and exchanged gifts with the president of the East-West Center, which is on the University of Hawaii’s flagship Manoa campus. He spoke to an audience at the center but journalists were escorted out of a conference hall before he began speaking.
China’s Foreign Ministry said it “strongly condemned” U.S. support for Lai’s visit and had lodged a complaint with the U.S. It also denounced a newly announced U.S. weapons sale to Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as its own territory.
Taiwan's biggest challenge is China: Lai in Hawaii speech (Focus Taiwan)
Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo (郭雅慧), speaking to reporters about Lai's speech, said that the president pledged to continue implementing the so-called "Four Pillars of Peace action plan" to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
This includes strengthening national defense, economic security, partnerships with democratic countries and stable and principled cross-strait leadership.
Taiwan will also continue to beef up its self-defense capabilities and take a whole-of-society approach to the issue, referencing the Whole of Society Defense Resilience Committee run by the Presidential Office, Kuo quoted Lai as saying.
Kuo added that Lai emphasized the Taiwan-United States partnership, highlighting its role in strengthening Taiwan's self-defense capabilities and its position in the global supply chain, particularly in the semiconductor and high-tech sectors.
China expected to launch new exercise (Taipei Times)
Beijing is poised to encircle Taiwan proper in military exercise “Joint Sword-2024C,” starting today or tomorrow, as President William Lai (賴清德) returns from his visit to diplomatic allies in the Pacific, a national security official said yesterday.
Commenting on condition of anonymity, the official said that multiple intelligence sources showed that China is “highly likely” to launch new drills around Taiwan.
Although the drills’ scale is unknown, there is little doubt that they are part of the military activities China initiated before Lai’s departure, they said.
Chinese student delegation may have violated regulations: MAC (Focus Taiwan)
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) on Wednesday said a high-profile Chinese student delegation visiting Taiwan may have violated regulations governing visits by individuals from China.
Lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have accused a member of the Chinese student group, invited by a foundation established by former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) for a nine-day exchange trip, of making comments that "undermined Taiwan's status."
KMT Criticizes Claimed Lack of Academic Exchanges with China (New Bloom Magazine)
Yeh’s claims are not new, then, but prove another version of familiar KMT talking points that have long been used against the DPP. Yeh’s comments reflect how the KMT was focused only on exchanges with China and not with the Western world during its years in power, as seen in its efforts to steer Taiwan toward political and economic relations exclusively with China.
At the same time, academic exchanges between Taiwan and China have become more fraught in past years because of cross-strait tensions. For one, it proves harder to do research in China when access to historical information is sometimes arbitrarily blocked because it is seen as politically sensitive.
Likewise, there are dangers for Taiwanese scholars in China if they work on topics considered too politically sensitive. A number of the Taiwanese currently held in China are, in fact, academics–many of which are pan-Blue in political orientation. This has not prevented their detention in China on allegations of seeking to subvert the state or similar charges.
Taiwanese hotlines to help manage 'safety risks' for China travel (HKFP)
Taiwan has launched hotlines for travellers seeking information about their “safety risks” while in China, which recently published tough criminal sentencing guidelines for supporters of the island’s independence.
The enhanced “emergency assistance services” aim to help address “personal safety risks associated with travelling” to China, Hong Kong and Macau, Taiwan’s top China policy body, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), announced on Monday.
Chiung Yao: Top Chinese language writer dies in apparent suicide (BBC)
Chiung Yao, arguably the world's most popular Chinese language romance novelist, has died in an apparent suicide.
The 86-year-old's body was found in her home in New Taipei City on Wednesday, local media report. Emergency services said she took her own life, according to Taiwan's Central News Agency.
Chiung Yao started writing at 18 and published more than 60 novels, many of which were adapted into movies and TV series and remained popular for decades.
She was also a successful screenwriter and producer. One of her most famous works was the TV drama My Fair Princess, which launched the careers of big name stars.
She was born Chen Che in Sichuan, China in 1938. Chiung Yao is her pen name.
World
Asia
Philippines and China in South China Sea confrontation (DW)
In the latest row, China alleged that four Philippine ships tried to enter China's territorial waters around the Scarborough Shoal which prompted Beijing's "exercised control", Coast Guard spokesperson Liu Dejun said in a statement.
"On December 4, Philippine Coast Guard ships... attempted to intrude into China's territorial waters around Huangyan Island," Dejun said, using the Chinese name for Scarborough Shoal.
The Philippine vessels "came dangerously close to regular law enforcement patrol vessels of the China Coast Guard", Dejun said, without giving details about Beijing's actions.
The Philippines said that the Chinese Coast Guard took "aggressive actions" and fired a water cannon at a government vessel while it was on patrol near the Scarborough Shoal.
Philippines files diplomatic protest against China over South China Sea incident (Reuters)
The Philippines' foreign ministry said on Thursday it has filed a diplomatic protest against China over a Dec. 4 maritime incident in the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
Thursday's protest is the latest in nearly 200 the Philippines has lodged against China under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr who has increasingly complained about what is says are Beijing's aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
Japan grants Philippines $11 mln in security aid to bolster defences (Reuters)
Japan and the Philippines signed a 1.6 billion yen ($10.65 million) security assistance deal on Thursday to boost the Southeast Asian nation's maritime security and surveillance abilities amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea.
Both the Philippines and Japan, two of the United States' closest Asian allies, have taken a strong line against what they see as aggressive behaviour by Chinese vessels amid decades-old disputes over maritime sovereignty.
Japan will provide the Philippine Navy with equipment such as rigid-hulled inflatable boats and coastal radar systems under its Overseas Security Assistance programme to enhance its maritime domain awareness capabilities.
US, Japan and Philippine forces jointly patrol in South China Sea after hostilities involving China (AP)
The United States deployed a reconnaissance aircraft while Japan and the Philippines sent navy ships in a joint patrol in the disputed South China Sea on Friday, two days after the allied forces condemned actions by Chinese coast guard vessels against Philippine patrol ships.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said the joint patrol was conducted in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone by allies and partners to “uphold the right to freedom of navigation and overflight " and “other lawful uses of the sea and international airspace.”
Those phrases are used by the U.S., Japan and the Philippines to oppose China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the disputed waters.
Six takeaways from Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo (Brookings)
Several years ago, Xi Jinping gave his military leaders the task of being ready to take Taiwan—even in the face of U.S. military involvement—by 2027. Paparo is unpersuaded that year means very much, especially now that it is only 25 months away. However, Indo-Pacific Command must be ready to help defend Taiwan even before 2027, and it should certainly plan on being prepared to defend Taiwan after that year as well. According to Paparo, China might undertake what it believes to be a “war of necessity” if it considers one of the three conditions under its 2005 Anti-Secession Law breached, namely, “if there was a Declaration of Independence … if the [People’s Republic of China] PRC were to see unification or if the PRC were to see a third power intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, or … if the PRC were to derive that unification was irrevocably beyond its reach via any other means.” Whatever Xi’s motives for picking 2027 as a target date, they do not themselves represent a decision to attack that year (or any particular year).
Indonesia yet to agree joint development areas with Beijing in South China Sea, minister says (Reuters)
Indonesia has yet to decide on any joint development areas with China in the South China Sea, its foreign minister said on Monday, seeking to allay concerns that a recent agreement with Beijing could compromise its sovereignty.
Indonesia caused a stir last month when it issued a joint statement with China pledging to develop projects "in the overlapping waters claimed by the two countries", in what was widely interpreted as rare recognition of China's sweeping territorial claim in the South China Sea.
China stakes its claim to sovereignty over about 90% of the waterway via a U-shaped nine-dash line on its maps that includes parts of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) of its neighbours, which have refused to recognise the claim.
An international tribunal in 2016 concluded the claim had no legal basis. China refuses to recognise that.
Indonesia Foreign Minister Sugiono, who goes by one name, on Monday reiterated to lawmakers that Jakarta still does not recognise the Chinese claim and would make decisions in its national interests.
Indonesia chases the return of ‘bonanza-era’ Chinese tourism (The Guardian)
In 2018, more than 2.13 million Chinese tourists visited Indonesia – more than those from all European nations combined, and second only to visitors from Malaysia. In 2021, the figure was just 54,000.
“Of course, we would like to get back into the bonanza-era, pre-pandemic,” says Ni Made Ayu Marthini, Indonesia’s deputy minister for tourism marketing. Ayu Marthini says she realised Chinese people were fascinated with her country when she came across a replica Balinese village in China’s southern Hainan province.
Indonesian tourism officials are in China every second month, organising with major Chinese companies such as Huawei and booking giant Ctrip. Deals with Chinese airlines target a list of “crown jewels” across Indonesia and posts on Douyin market places like Pink Beach in Komodo national park and swimming with whale sharks in Sumbawa. Travel agency Komodo Trips says they have 100-150 Chinese clients taking three-day boat trips to Komodo island every month.
In 2023 there were 788,000 Chinese visitors – around four times the previous year. This year Indonesia has set a target of 1.5 million. Officials saying unplanned events like the recent volcano eruption have had an impact, but they think the total will exceed 1 million by Christmas – still around half pre-pandemic levels.
Malaysia Warns Chinese Firms: Don’t Use Us to Dodge U.S. Tariffs (The China-Global South Project)
Malaysia urged Chinese companies to avoid using the country as a base to evade U.S. tariffs.
“Over the past year or so… I have been advising many businesses from China not to invest in Malaysia if they were merely thinking of rebadging their products via Malaysia to avoid U.S. tariffs,” said Deputy Trade Minister Liew Chin Tong on Monday, but Liew did not specify the types of businesses.
The warning comes the same day as the United States launched its third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor industry, placing restrictions on 140 companies, including major chip equipment maker Naura Technology Group.
South Korea’s martial law sends brief tremors through Chinese tourists, firms (SCMP)
The surprise imposition of martial law by the South Korean president – an action reversed by the country’s legislature in a matter of hours – is likely to have some impact on Chinese tourists and cause short-term currency fluctuations, but no lasting effect on trade and investment between Beijing and Seoul is expected, said company executives and analysts.
Yoon Suk-yeol’s brief imposition of martial law on Tuesday night – the first since the country’s democratisation in 1987 – suspended protests and other civil rights, including political gatherings. It was later overturned by a unanimous vote in the National Assembly in accordance with South Korean law.
Tourists would have some apprehensions – albeit temporary ones – about travelling to South Korea in the wake of the crisis, said Steven Zhao, CEO of China Highlights. “I expect some effect, but it will pass quickly,” added the founder of the Guilin-based online travel agency. “[Fear] would be just one stage.”
Tokyo-Beijing forum aims to warm chilly relations (VOA)
The Tokyo-Beijing Forum was held in person this week in Japan for the first time since it went virtual during the COVID-19 pandemic.
During the two-day forum from December 4 through 5, officials from Japan and China expressed hopes to warm their frosty relations.
Analysts pointed to China sending a higher-level delegation than at past forums as a sign that Beijing wants closer trade ties with Japan.
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya attended in person, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi addressed the forum via video. Both expressed hopes for improving China-Japan relations, which cooled after Tokyo’s support for Washington’s restricted exports of advanced microchips to China amid its increasingly assertive military, and attacks this year on Japanese citizens living in China.
Japan moving to ease visa requirements for Chinese visitors: source (Kyodo News)
The Japanese government is making arrangements to ease its visa issuance requirements for Chinese visitors, a government source said Wednesday, in the latest sign of improving bilateral ties.
Late last month, Beijing restarted its unilateral visa-free arrangement for short-term Japanese visitors, allowing stays of up to 30 days, apparently to promote tourism and trade amid a downturn in the world's second-largest economy. The preferential treatment had been suspended since March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
India signals readiness to pursue China business ties after border row resolved (Reuters)
India and China will consider "other aspects" of their bilateral ties in a calibrated manner now that they have completed pulling back their troops from the last two face-off points on their Himalayan border, India's foreign minister said on Tuesday.
The comments came six weeks after New Delhi and Beijing reached a deal to resolve a four-year military stand-off that had damaged the relationship between the Asian giants, indicating that India is willing to improve business ties that were also hurt.
[…]
"The conclusion of the disengagement phase now allows us to consider other aspects of our bilateral engagement in a calibrated manner, keeping our national security interests first and foremost," Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told parliament without elaborating.
"We are clear that the maintenance of peace and tranquillity in border areas is a pre-requisite for the development of our ties," he said, adding that top officials and diplomats of the two countries would meet soon to discuss future steps.
"In the coming days, we will be discussing both de-escalation as well as effective management of our activities in the border areas," Jaishankar said.
China, India vow to learn lessons of deadly 2020 border clash, keep talking to avert rerun (SCMP)
India and China have pledged to reflect on the lessons learned from their border stand-off in 2020, while emphasising the need for regular communication to prevent a recurrence.
The resolution came at the first diplomatic talks under a key dialogue mechanism since both sides withdrew from two face-off points along their disputed western Himalayan border.
“The two sides positively affirmed the implementation of the most recent [troop] disengagement agreement which completed the resolution of the issues that emerged in 2020,” a statement from the Indian foreign ministry said after the 32nd meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on India-China Border Affairs, held in New Delhi on Thursday.
Nepal signs framework agreement with China on Belt and Road initiative after years of delay (Times of India)
Nepal and China have formalized a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement during Prime Minister Oli's visit to Beijing. This move, seven years after the initial pact, paves the way for infrastructure projects but raises debt concerns within Nepal's government. The agreement signals a potential shift in Nepal's diplomatic priorities, traditionally aligned with India.
Nepal and China Identify 10 Projects for Execution Under BRI (The Diplomat)
Ten projects have been identified by Nepal for execution under the BRI: the Tokha-Chhahare tunnel road, Hilsa-Simikot road project, Kimathanka-Khandbari road and bridge, Jilong-Kerung-Kathmandu cross-border railway, Amargadhi City Hall in Dadeldhura, Jilong-Kerung-Rasuwagadhi-Chilime 220KV transmission line, Madan Bhandari University, Kathmandu Scientific Centre and Science Museum, China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park in Damak, and Jhapa Sports and Athletic Complex.
Two of these projects, the Jhapa Sports and Athletics Complex and the China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park will be located in Jhapa, Oli’s electoral constituency, while the Amargarhi City Hall at Dadeldhura is in Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana’s constituency.
[…]
Although India pursues a “multi-alignment” foreign policy, marking a departure from its previous position of “non-alignment,” and India is part of groupings like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS and AIIB that include China, New Delhi opposes Nepal working with China.
New Zealand’s Top Soldier Warns of Growing Risks From China (Bloomberg)
New Zealand’s top soldier said he’s concerned about China’s increasing presence in the South Pacific and warned that the nation’s armed forces need to be ready for any eventuality.
“I haven’t seen the world or the region in this kind of state, and that concerns me,” Chief of Defence Force Air Marshal Tony Davies told a parliamentary committee Tuesday in Wellington. “At some point we need to be prepared to make decisions which could see our sailors, soldiers and aviators going into harm’s way to protect our interests.”
New Zealand along with Australia and the US were shocked when the Solomon Islands announced in early 2022 that it had signed a security agreement with Beijing. Wellington is seeking to deepen its ties with like-minded western nations but in doing so runs the risk of antagonizing China, its biggest trading partner.
“We’ve seen a far greater presence by China in the Pacific, in the southwest Pacific,” Davies said.
[…]
New Zealand’s concerns come as the government plans to increase defense spending to replace aging machinery and deepen ties with traditional partners who expect it to pull its weight. The current appropriation amounts to only about 1% of gross domestic product but ministers say it needs to rise toward NATO’s guidance of 2%.
Brooke Barrington, chief executive of the Ministry of Defence, told the committee that New Zealand’s strategic position “is sharply deteriorating.”
“Hot spots are becoming a good deal hotter and a number of those hot spots are in our own hemisphere,” he said. “And we are increasingly seeing the securitization of the Pacific by countries who are not of the Pacific.”
Americas
Chip war ramps up with new US semiconductor restrictions on China (The Guardian)
The US has announced new export restrictions targeting China’s ability to make advanced semiconductors, drawing swift condemnation from Beijing.
Washington is expanding efforts to curb exports of state-of-the-art chips to China that can be used in advanced weapons systems and in artificial intelligence.
The announcement on Monday came a few weeks before Donald Trump returns as president, where he is expected to bolster Washington’s hawkish stance on China. On Monday the commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, said Joe Biden’s presidency had been especially tough in “strategically addressing China’s military modernisation through export controls”.
US China Chip Curbs Slammed by GOP Lawmaker for Huawei 'Loopholes' (Bloomberg)
A key House Republican criticized the Biden administration’s latest attempt to curtail China’s chipmaking ambitions, saying US rules unveiled Monday leave loopholes that will let Chinese companies like Huawei Technologies Co. continue acquiring American technology.
Representative John Moolenaar, who chairs the chamber’s China Select Committee, expressed his concerns in a letter Wednesday to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. He said parts of the new export controls give Chinese firms leeway to avoid sanctions, citing a provision that focuses on certain production facilities of firms like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., Huawei’s chipmaking partner, applying different restrictions to different parts of the company.
Moolenaar praised other measures — such as restrictions on the export of high-bandwidth memory chips, which are essential to AI — but questioned why President Joe Biden’s administration took no action against ChangXin Memory Technologies Inc., which is trying to develop the same AI memory chip technology. Some Biden officials had pushed to add CXMT to the so-called entity list, Bloomberg News has reported, but the latest curbs ultimately stopped short of tougher measures previously considered.
Moolenaar asked Commerce officials to “preserve all documents and communications” relating to the new controls, so that President-elect Donald Trump’s team can “can properly identify any other loopholes” — signaling that Republicans could seek tougher measures when Trump returns to the White House in January.
China bans gallium, antimony exports to US in response to chip sanctions (AP)
China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry announced the move after the Washington expanded its list of Chinese companies subject to export controls on computer chip-making equipment, software and high-bandwidth memory chips. Such chips are needed for advanced applications.
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China Imposes Its Most Stringent Critical Minerals Export Restrictions Yet Amidst Escalating U.S.-China Tech War (Center for Strategic and International Studies)
There is ample evidence that the trade war will escalate given the new administration is even more hawkish toward China and intends to impose higher tariffs. China’s Ministry of Commerce noted that Washington is “weaponizing trade and technology” under the guise of national security.
The United States will need to deploy incentives and financing instruments to encourage investments with “existing friends” and “new friends” to secure a supply of vital resources.
China industry bodies urge ‘caution’ in buying US chips in reprisal to Biden sanctions (SCMP)
China’s state-backed bodies covering internet companies, semiconductor firms, automakers and communications network operators have called on their respective members to shun chips from US suppliers in an apparent retaliation against Washington’s latest sanctions, which could deal a blow to the mainland businesses of Nvidia, Qualcomm and Intel.
The four bodies – the Internet Society of China, the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the China Semiconductor Industry Association and the China Association of Communication Enterprises – on Tuesday issued statements within minutes of each other, urging their members to be “cautious” about buying chips from American suppliers, following the Biden administration’s fresh sanctions.
The move reflects these industries’ concerns after the US government blacklisted another batch of Chinese semiconductor enterprises this week.
How China tariffs could backfire on U.S. (Harvard Gazette)
Harvard economist Larry Summers recently said if the U.S. takes a broad brushstroke approach to tariffs on imports, that may provide Beijing with a ready excuse for China’s own internal economic problems, further straining U.S.-China relations. Do you share that view?
I think that’s quite plausible, but I’d say there’s another “yes, and.” It also provides an opportunity for something else that China could do that the U.S. would find unattractive.
What’s being proposed is not just a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods, but also 25 percent on all goods from Mexico and Canada. [And Trump said during his campaign that European Union nations might also face tariffs.] That gives China an opportunity to talk to the EU, to talk to mid-sized, independent economies like Australia, the U.K., Japan, and say, “Because we are all being targeted by these tariffs at different levels, it makes more sense for us to find some common cause.”
It would be a real reversal if the United States chose to undertake a trade policy that got the Chinese and Europeans closer to each other rather than the U.S., as is traditional, being close to its democratic allies.
Trump picks former Sen. David Perdue of Georgia to be ambassador to China (CNBC)
President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday he has selected former Sen. David Perdue of Georgia to serve as his ambassador to China, leaning on a former business executive turned politician to serve as the administration’s envoy to America’s most potent economic and military adversary.
[…]
During his time in the Senate, Perdue was labeled as “anti-China” in a 2019 Chinese think tank report. The former Georgia lawmaker advocated that the U.S. needed to build a more robust naval force to cope with threats, including from China.
Before launching his political career, Perdue held a string of top executive positions, including at Sara Lee, Reebok and Dollar General.
Beijing mulls US engagement options as China-sanctioned Rubio awaits top diplomat post (SCMP)
When Marco Rubio was nominated by US president-elect Donald Trump last month to be the next US secretary of state, one obvious question loomed: how would the Florida senator, who has been sanctioned by China twice, engage with Washington’s biggest rival?
Rubio – known for his hawkish stance towards China – could move to stifle high-level exchanges between Washington and Beijing and throw up road blocks to any meaningful negotiation, according to observers.
However, Beijing could consider several options to counter confrontational US moves, and sanctioned high-level diplomats from either side could still meet face-to-face in a neutral, third-party location, analysts said.
As Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), put it: “We could follow the American formula. The US has set an example for us, and this is reciprocity.”
This was the case with Li Shangfu, the former Chinese defence chief who was sanctioned by the US after being accused of helping to transfer combat aircraft and air defence missile systems from China to Russia.
Li, who was ousted a few months after being named defence minister, never held formal talks with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin, but they did have a brief exchange at a regional security conference in Singapore in 2023. They “shook hands but did not have a substantive exchange”, according to the Pentagon.
Trump Is a Golden Opportunity. China Will Waste It (Bloomberg)
On security, China’s overall relationship with the West ex-US is much worse today than eight years ago — largely thanks to its “wolf warrior” diplomacy and support for Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Rather than using its influence to quell global conflicts, Beijing offered an economic lifeline to Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. It has sat on the sidelines as wars raged in the Middle East and Houthi rebels disrupted global shipping. In East Asia, its gray-zone tactics have fueled tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
If China embarked on a new charm offensive now, European nations, Japan, Australia, and South Korea would remain both suspicious and wary of angering Trump. They are likely to respond politely but act cautiously. As Xi probably understands this reality, he will be reluctant to invest much time and energy in an unpromising project.
Contributing to his reluctance will be something China didn’t face during Trump’s first term — a yawning resource deficit. Between 2017 and 2019, growth averaged 6.6% per year. Today, the mainland’s economy is in a deep and protracted slump. Beijing has already been forced to downsize its ambitious Belt-and-Road Initiative as a result.
As China girds itself for more confrontations with the US, it is unlikely to spare substantial resources for much besides its top-priority task of economic securitization.
The only area where China may be better positioned to advance its interests than before is in the Global South, where US influence and prestige has eroded — and will likely decline further and faster under Trump. Given how important developing nations have become in Beijing’s geopolitical calculus, they will likely receive more attention and investment than other players.
The White House struggles to stop Chinese telecommunications hacks (Politico)
The White House is also working in close cooperation with at least eight U.S. telecommunications providers that have been breached by the China-backed hacking group known as Salt Typhoon, Neuberger said — the first official confirmation of the number of affected providers in the U.S. In addition, the White House has activated a new cyber defense task force between the NSA, Pentagon, and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to address the breach.
Still, none of the U.S. telecommunications providers have managed to oust the Chinese hackers from their networks, Neuberger warned, which means that a large number of Americans remain vulnerable to Chinese eavesdropping.
Senators fume over response to ‘disturbing and widespread’ Chinese hack of US telecoms (Politico)
“There’s no accountability in anybody sitting up there,” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) told reporters after the briefing. “They have not told us why they didn’t catch it, what they’ve done to prevent it.”
“If somebody came to my office and said, ‘Hey look, something bad happened, don’t worry, I’m responsible for it, but I’m not going to be responsible for it, and I don’t have any plan to fix it,’ what would you do? You’d fire them,” he added.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said the extent of the breach was “breathtaking,” and pushed for more information to be declassified.
“I think the American people need to know the extent of the breach here, I think they will be shocked at the extent of it,” Hawley said. “I think they need to know about their text messages, their voicemail, their phone calls. It’s very bad, it’s very, very bad, and it is ongoing.”
The frustration was felt across the aisle too. Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.), a former telecoms executive, took issue with these companies for leaving “gaping holes” in the security of critical systems.
“I think there is huge concern, far and away the worst telecom hack, and the fact is that they are still in the systems,” Warner told reporters.
TikTok ban: Court upholds law ordering ByteDance to divest app (CNBC)
A federal appeals court on Friday cited national security concerns as it upheld a law requiring China-based ByteDance to sell the popular social media app TikTok next month or face an effective ban in the United States.
The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., rejected TikTok’s argument that the law is unconstitutional and violates the First Amendment rights of the 170 million Americans who use the app.
TikTok said later Friday that it will ask the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the appeals court decision.
Can Donald Trump save TikTok? (Financial Times)
The fate of ByteDance-owned TikTok in the US rests in the hands of the Supreme Court and Donald Trump, who has promised to “save” the app as a potential ban in the country next year looks more possible.
The US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on Friday upheld a law requiring China’s ByteDance to sell the short form video platform or face a US ban by January 19 2025 — the day before Trump takes over from Joe Biden as US president.
TikTok is expected to pursue a legal appeal. If unsuccessful, the app could be banned in the US for a day before Trump takes office, in a blow to the app’s 170mn American users and the creators and marketers that rely on the platform. It would then be up to the new president to find a way to convince Congress to reverse the same law it passed with overwhelming bipartisan support this year — or find another avenue to do so himself.
“The whole thing is going to be a down-to-the-wire mess,” said Alan Rozenshtein, a law professor at the University of Minnesota Law School.
From Chinese Patriot to American Spy: The Unusual Life of John Leung (The New York Times)
John Leung was an unlikely spy. In the small Oklahoma town where he lived, people knew him as a former restaurant owner and a father. In Houston, where he often traveled, they knew him as a political organizer in the city’s vibrant Chinese community.
And in China, they knew him as a benevolent patriot, a man who arranged musical performances and embraced official causes like unifying the mainland with Taiwan.
In fact, Mr. Leung was an informant for the F.B.I., gathering intelligence on China, according to two senior United States officials. That work landed him in Chinese custody in 2021, after he traveled to the mainland at the age of 75. He was later sentenced to life in prison, a first in decades for an American accused of espionage.
Mr. Leung was freed last Wednesday in a rare prisoner swap between Washington and Beijing. Six months shy of his 80th birthday, he was put on a plane to the United States with two other Americans who had been detained in China, along with three Uyghurs, members of an ethnic group that faces repression by the Chinese government.
In return, Washington released Xu Yanjun, a convicted Chinese spy who had been serving a 20-year sentence, and Ji Chaoqun, 31, who had reported to Mr. Xu and was serving an eight-year sentence. A clemency order for a third Chinese national, Jin Shanlin, who had been in prison for possessing child pornography, was signed on the same day as an order for Mr. Xu. China said Washington also handed over a fugitive.
NASA says moon mission is delayed, hopes to land astronauts before China (NBC News)
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said the adjusted timeline should still keep the United States on track to return astronauts to the moon before China puts its own astronauts on the lunar surface.
Nelson said the mid-2027 goal “will be well ahead of the Chinese government’s announced intention” of landing Chinese astronauts on the moon by 2030.
China’s interest in lunar exploration has ignited a kind of new space race, with some U.S. experts and officials increasingly concerned that if China reaches the lunar surface before the U.S., there could be competition over resources in space, including valuable water-ice that is thought to be locked up in permanently shadowed craters at the lunar south pole. Water on the moon, the thinking goes, could be used to make rocket fuel to propel missions deeper into space.
“It is vital for us to land on the south pole so that we do not cede portions of that lunar south pole to the Chinese,” Nelson said.
China slaps sanctions on 13 US military firms over Taiwan arms sale (Reuters)
China has decided to impose sanctions on 13 U.S. military firms from Thursday, in response to the sale of U.S. arms to Taiwan, the foreign ministry said after the United States arranged for Taiwan's president to transit through its territory.
The step follows China's strong objection to the United States authorising a potential $385-million sale of spare parts and support for F-16 jets and radars to Taiwan, which Beijing says undermines its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
[…]
Companies targeted by the sanctions include Teledyne Brown Engineering Inc, BRINC Drones Inc and Shield AI Inc, the foreign ministry said in Thursday's statement.
Other companies facing sanctions are Rapid Flight LLC, Red Six Solutions, SYNEXXUS Inc, Firestorm Labs Inc, Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems Inc, HavocAI, Neros Technologies, Cyberlux Corporation, Domo Tactical Communications and Group W.
In addition, China will freeze the assets of six executives from five companies including Raytheon, BAE Systems and United Technologies, in China, and bar their entry to the country.
How provinces and cities can sustain US–China climate cooperation (Nature)
Many states and provinces in the United States and China are facing similar challenges in decarbonizing their economies. For example, Guangdong in southern China, which is adjacent to Hong Kong, has much in common with California both geographically and economically.
Exchanging technology and policy knowledge could benefit both regions, which are hubs for talent, technology and capital. California offers expertise in emission-reduction strategies and climate-resilient infrastructure, which are relevant to cities in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Chinese cities in this area have developed expertise over the past two decades in high-speed rail, a low-emission alternative to road and air travel. They also have expertise in the deployment of offshore wind technology, an area of continuing collaboration in which engagement could be deepened.
Paraguay kicks out Chinese envoy after he urges country to cut ties with Taiwan (The Guardian)
Paraguay has expelled a Chinese envoy for allegedly interfering in its domestic affairs and urging the South American nation to break off ties with Taiwan.
In a curt statement on Thursday, Paraguay’s foreign ministry said it had revoked the visa of Xu Wei, a senior Chinese envoy to Latin America who was in Paraguay for an annual Unesco meeting, declaring him persona non grata “over interference in internal affairs”. The Chinese diplomat was given 24 hours to leave the country.
The day before, Xu skipped the Unesco session and instead turned up at congress in the capital of Asunción, where he caused a diplomatic stir by calling on Paraguay to ditch Taiwan, the self-governing democratic island of 23 million people that China claims as its territory.
Europe
Germany's Baerbock warns China over Russia support (DW)
During a visit to China on Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin was pulling Asia into the war with Ukraine.
Baerbock met with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing, where she discussed allegations that China is supplying drones or drone components to support Moscow's war.
She said that Beijing's support would "impact" the ties between the countries, according to a foreign office statement.
"Drones from Chinese factories and North Korean troops attacking peace in the center of Europe violate our core European security interests," Baerbock said.
NATO to step up action against Russian, Chinese ‘sabotage’ (Al Jazeera)
NATO will boost intelligence collaboration to counter Russian and Chinese “sabotage” targeting its infrastructure, the chief of the Western military alliance has announced.
Mark Rutte outlined the plan as the foreign ministers of NATO’s states gathered in Brussels on Tuesday. He spoke as questions swirled about damage to a data cable linking Sweden and Finland, the latest incident to stir suspicion.
“Over the past years, Russia and China have tried to destabilise our nations with acts of sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation and energy blackmail to intimidate us,” Rutte told reporters at the NATO gathering.
“NATO allies will continue to stand together to face these threats through a range of measures, including greater intelligence sharing and better protection of critical infrastructure.”
A Chinese-Flagged Ship Cut Baltic Sea Internet Cables. This Time, Europe Was More Prepared. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Some observers say that the most recent cable-cutting incident is proof that Europe’s efforts have failed. But differences in responses to the two incidents demonstrate the new seriousness with which these issues are being considered throughout Europe. In 2023, the NewNew Polar Bear continued sailing after damaging two subsea cables and a gas pipeline. The vessel ignored requests from Finnish and Estonian authorities to halt its voyage and returned to port in Tianjin, China. As of publication, Estonian authorities are still waiting on their Chinese counterparts to complete necessary procedures for Estonia to end its criminal investigation into the incident.
In contrast, the Yi Peng 3 currently remains in international waters in the Kattegat, with naval and coast guard vessels from Denmark, Germany, and Sweden circling close by. Under international maritime law, these countries’ authorities are not allowed to board the Yi Peng 3 unless given consent by its flag state—in this case, China. The one exception is from the 1884 Convention on Submarine Cables, in which authorities from signatories’ warships are allowed to board vessels suspected of damaging subsea cables to determine the crew’s nationalities. The situation and legality for authorities to board the ship to further investigate would be different if the vessel were in Swedish or Danish territorial waters, which is likely why Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has requested the Yi Peng 3 return closer to Sweden.
Current provisions of international law are neither formulated to adequately protect subsea data cables from sabotage nor hold perpetrators accountable. This reality should lead the EU, as a body inherently focused on the resilience of international legal regimes, to push for updates that are better suited for the current geopolitical reality.
Chinese interests in Ukraine: Mind the gap between rhetoric and reality ()
[…] it is important for the Euro-Atlantic democracies that Russia loses. The PRC is supplying considerable help. Thus, the first imperative is to devote resources and imagination to identifying the companies, financial backers and methods through which the CCP is aiding the Russian war machine. Euro-Atlantic governments are presumably doing this already, but it needs to be ramped up and their leaders need to be adamantine in following through with sanctions and other ways of inflicting losses on Chinese offenders. The likely Chinese response in turn requires leaders to understand that the CCP already sees itself in a long term ideological and existential struggle of systems. It says so, repeatedly, in internal documents and speeches. Decry though it might those who talk of a ‘new cold war’, the CCP itself is in no doubt that it has already started.
The CCP is winning the propaganda war on Ukraine, particularly in what it refers to as the ‘Global South’. Euro-Atlantic governments need to research and publicise Chinese aims, its hypocrisy, the shallowness of its ‘peace proposals’ and its self-serving actions.
Whatever happens in Trump’s White House, EU and China to remain rivals, top envoy says (SCMP)
The EU’s trade tensions and rivalry with China are likely to persist, Brussels’ top envoy to Beijing said on Wednesday amid speculation that Trump 2.0 could shake up EU-China ties.
EU ambassador Jorge Toledo said in Beijing that he did not expect Donald Trump’s return to the White House to cause the European Union to change its view of China as a cooperation partner, economic competitor and systemic rival.
“I think this is a fair description, and I don’t think it will change naturally,” Toledo said at an event organised by the Centre for China and Globalisation.
In the speech at the China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum, Toledo addressed the intensifying trade row between Brussels and Beijing, saying the EU “clearly believes that we are not competing fairly”, which has led to trade measures against China.
Europe in the line of fire as Trump threatens trade war with China (Politico)
“We don't have the luxury of only looking at the immediate impact of U.S. tariffs on EU goods. The ripple effect of changing trade flows as a result of U.S. tariffs on China might come crashing down on us sooner than we'd like,” said one EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss how Trump’s tariff threats were playing in Brussels.
Europe’s concerns are justified … up to a point. EU countries would indeed feel the heat of a trade war with China, which would depress trade and growth at a time when Germany, its largest and most export-driven economy, is expected to suffer its second year of negative growth.
Yet, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe would actually be hit less hard than other regions. Gross domestic product would fall by 0.14 percent in the first year of a Trump trade war, and by 0.2 percent in the longer term, the think tank estimates — far less than the decline that the two main antagonists would suffer.
EU’s Teresa Ribera Pledges Vigilance on China’s Clean-Tech Tactics (Bloomberg)
The European Union should guard against Chinese attempts to dominate the bloc’s clean-tech market and make sure its exports aren’t destroying local rivals, the bloc’s new competition chief warned.
In her first interview since becoming the EU’s antitrust commissioner, Teresa Ribera told Bloomberg that Europe and the US failed in recent years to anticipate the threat of China’s ambitions for global dominance in those industries and the bloc needs to urgently pay more attention.
“It’s the cheap materials and cheap equipment arriving in this market, then investing to produce them in Europe” with markets then closing to European rivals, Ribera said. She added that it was necessary to probe “how this may have an impact in terms of killing competitors within the same market and then controlling the market.”
Spanish socialist Ribera, who assumed the reins of the EU’s powerful antitrust portfolio on Monday, also suggested the bloc needs to consider issuing joint debt to help bolster its clean-tech transition. In the new European Commission, she has an expanded role that also includes helping to chart the clean-tech transition while defending the EU’s competitiveness against China and the US.
EU Aid for EV Batteries Seeks to Stave Off Chinese Competition (Bloomberg)
EV battery manufacturers relying on Chinese components risk being cut out of €1 billion in European Union subsidies as the bloc aims to boost its own production and supply chains.
Inviting bids for grants for EV batteries, the European Commission said it will favor projects that source less of their cathodes, anodes and active materials from China. It will also require a transfer of know-how: new patents originating from the awarded projects will have to be registered in EU member states.
In two other initiatives announced on Tuesday to finance net-zero technologies and hydrogen projects, the EU also included criteria that would benefit domestic producers. The move is in line with a broader political priority to keep manufacturing within Europe as the region undergoes an unprecedented economic overhaul to curb greenhouse gases by 2050.
“All three calls include new resilience criteria to boost European industry,” said Teresa Ribera, the commission’s new executive vice president in charge of the clean transition. “The batteries call and hydrogen bank auction will also include specific resilience criteria to protect Europe against dependency on a single supplier.”
Why Isn’t Europe Diversifying from China? (Rhodium Group)
In the past seven years, the US has actively diversified its trade, sourcing, and investment away from China. Japan, too, is distancing itself from China. The European Union (EU), in contrast, has deepened its trade and investment relationship with China, even as European concerns about economic dependencies grew in the wake of the COVID pandemic and rising geopolitical tensions.
Three factors explain this gap. First, Europe has maintained much greater openness to Chinese clean tech imports in the context of an early and fast-paced green transition agenda. Second, high energy prices in Europe in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have fueled a rise in lower-priced Chinese chemicals imports. Third and finally, the US and Japan have diversified away from China faster in low-tech goods like textiles and furniture. Above all, though, a key difference lies in a lack of European regulatory carrots and sticks of sufficient strength to convince EU companies to rethink their manufacturing and sourcing networks.
China Warns Of 'Countermeasures' After Lithuania Expels Embassy Staff (Barron's)
Beijing warned Monday it could take "countermeasures" against Lithuania after the expulsion of three Chinese embassy staff, as relations fray over Vilnius's Taiwan ties and the suspected involvement of a Chinese ship in sea cables damage.
"China strongly condemns and firmly rejects this wanton and provocative action," a foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement.
Chinese entities lobby for contested mega embassy in London (Financial Times)
Following a freedom of information request by Tory MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Tower Hamlets has disclosed redacted versions of about 200 submissions it has received in support of the latest application.
The letters include seven submissions from individuals working for, or associated with, Chinese state-owned enterprises, raising concerns over Beijing’s influence over the process.
One letter, which said it represented the London branch of Bank of China, a state-owned commercial bank, expressed “strong support” for a new embassy. It argued it would lead to a “high-quality refurbishment” of several heritage buildings, returning them to their “original beauty”.
A person who said they worked for Air China, a majority Chinese state-owned company, claimed in another submission that the building would “bring cultural and economic benefits to the area” and enrich the diversity of Tower Hamlets.
A third correspondent, who said they were writing on behalf of General Nuclear International Limited, set out their “strong support” for the application, arguing it entailed a “unique opportunity to promote environmental sustainability and contribute to urban regeneration in our borough”.
General Nuclear International Limited is a UK subsidiary of China General Nuclear Power Group, a Chinese state-owned energy corporation.
Duncan Smith, co-chair of the hawkish Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (Ipac), and a group of cross-party MPs and peers have written to Rayner following the release of these documents, accusing Beijing of “suspected interference” in the planning consultation.
The 13 signatories of the letter included Labour MP Sarah Champion, chair of the Commons international development select committee; former Tory security minister Tom Tugendhat; Liberal Democrat MP Alistair Carmichael; and crossbench peer Lord David Alton.
The letter accused the Chinese state of mounting an “orchestrated campaign” to convey support for the proposal and said the alleged “spectre of state-owned enterprises seeking to influence a local planning application” was “troubling”.
Middle East & North Africa (MENA)
Chinese Experts Look at the Restart of Hostilities in Syria ()
The rebels’ recent capture of Hama raises further questions about how Chinese commentators will interpret unfolding developments, as they tended to express more confidence in Damascus’ resilience than much of the international media. Chinese diplomats, meanwhile, have reiterated their support for the Syrian government and its sovereignty, though it remains unclear how Beijing might act concretely in response to the evolving situation. It is interesting to note that none of the Chinese commentators examined seriously discussed China’s potential role in the escalating conflict. This suggests Beijing’s involvement is not considered relevant and that deeper Chinese engagement is seen as extremely unlikely.
China's Syria Predicament: A Re-run of Libya? ()
Beijing’s past commitments to the principle of non-interference complicate its ability to adapt to the shifting dynamics of the conflict. Its alignment with Assad has tied China to a regime that is increasingly isolated and losing legitimacy. Recent statements from Beijing have reinforced its support for the Syrian government, narrowing its room to maneuver diplomatically. If Assad is overthrown, China could find itself without viable alternatives, limited in its ability to engage with whatever political or military power structure emerges, and forced to contend with the fallout of its calculated but increasingly precarious position.
Chinese embassy in Syria urges citizens to evacuate immediately as civil war reignites (SCMP)
The Chinese embassy in Syria urged its citizens to leave the Middle Eastern nation “as soon as possible”, with the revival of its decade-long civil war and the capture of more cities by anti-government militants.
“At present, the war in northwestern Syria is growing tense, and the security situation in Syria is further deteriorating,” the embassy said on Thursday.
“The embassy in Syria suggests that Chinese citizens in Syria take advantage of the fact that commercial flights are still in operation to return home or leave the country as soon as possible.”
China’s ties with Saudi Arabia buoyed by green tech (Financial Times)
Chinese exports and investment are pouring into Saudi Arabia as the kingdom’s demand for green tech deepens a relationship once defined by oil sales and challenges business ties with its traditional western partners.
Bilateral trade has for many years been almost totally dominated by Chinese purchases of Saudi oil. But now, Chinese exports to Saudi Arabia are tracking towards a record high, at $40.2bn in the first 10 months of the year, up from $34.9bn for the same period last year, according to Chinese government data.
China has also become the kingdom’s largest source of greenfield foreign direct investment, with investments from 2021 to October this year totalling $21.6bn, about a third of which were in clean technologies such as batteries, solar and wind, according to investments tracked by fDi Markets. This compares with $12.5bn from the US, the next highest.
The figures herald a change, with China eclipsing the kingdom’s traditional investment partners, the US and France. Many of the Chinese deals have yet to show up in official Saudi figures, indicating the capital has yet to be deployed.
A Private Sector Role in U.S.-China-MENA dialogue? ()
The premise of this paper is simple: private industry and business leaders are essential to advancing trilateral dialogue between the U.S., China, and the Middle East, and promoting stability in the Middle East. While this is not a new concept, it has gained renewed urgency as the economic interests of both China and the United States in the region grow. Engaging the private sector in stability-building efforts is not just desirable—it is a strategic necessity. Without proactive involvement, businesses risk losing access to one of the world’s most dynamic and lucrative investment markets, particularly in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Stability is not only the bedrock of sustained economic growth but also a prerequisite for realizing the region’s transformative ambitions, such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.
Global Institutions & Multilateral Relations
China’s Xi calls for the protection of Belt and Road Initiative interests overseas (SCMP)
China must protect its overseas interests related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) amid growing global risks, President Xi Jinping said on Monday.
Speaking at a working conference on BRI projects, Beijing’s sprawling effort to build out a global infrastructure and trade network that connects to China, Xi warned that the international environment has become “tough and complicated”.
“In recent years, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, with a significant rise in unilateralism and protectionism, and regional conflicts and upheavals have become frequent,” Xi told the meeting.
“Against such circumstances … it is necessary to appropriately respond to various risks and challenges, effectively overcome the impact of geopolitical conflicts, correctly address the relationship between enhancing the sense of gain of the partner countries [of BRI] and ensure the benefits to our country, and effectively safeguard the security of our overseas interests,” he said.
Xi added that there are still more opportunities than challenges in promoting the BRI, despite the more challenging environment.
China’s Flood of Cheap Goods Is Angering Its Allies, Too (WSJ)
A deluge of cheap Chinese goods washing over the developing world is jacking up tensions between China and the Global South, complicating Beijing’s plans to build alliances as it confronts escalating trade tensions with the U.S.
With President-elect Donald Trump saying he plans to significantly increase tariffs on China, Beijing is hoping to unload more of its excess factory production to developing-world countries, from Indonesia to Pakistan to Brazil.
But many of those countries are pushing back, as cut-price Chinese imports put pressure on their factories, killing jobs and blocking efforts to grow manufacturing at home. Many poorer countries have been counting on expanding manufacturing as the best way to propel their rise up the development ladder.
For China, the emerging backlash threatens to undermine its goal of being a leader of the developing world, whose support it has courted as a means of building its own alliances to counter the U.S.
Many developing countries now fear they will endure the same kind of “China Shock” that gutted U.S. industry starting a quarter-century ago. Economists estimate the U.S. lost more than two million jobs between 1999 and 2011 as makers of furniture, toys and clothes buckled under competition from Chinese imports.
Business, Economy & Finance
China's Top Leaders to Meet to Discuss Stimulus Plans, Economic Targets for 2025 (Bloomberg)
China’s top leaders plan to start the annual closed-door Central Economic Work Conference next Wednesday to map out economic targets and stimulus plans for 2025, according to people familiar with the matter.
The high-profile conclave — scrutinized by investors for how officials steering the world’s No. 2 economy plan to direct monetary, fiscal and industrial policies — will last for two days, the people added. The meeting is normally attended by the nation’s top leadership including President Xi Jinping as well as senior financial regulators, and was held on the same dates last year.
The ruling Communist Party likely won’t announce when the meeting begins, with the public learning it’s taken place when the readout is published. While any specific numbers settled on won’t be revealed until the yearly parliament session in March, market participants will scour the statement for clues of policymakers’ conclusions.
China can accept GDP growth of less than 5%, says People's Daily (Reuters)
China is not wedded to achieving specific GDP growth rates, and a pace of less than 5% for the economy is acceptable as there is no need for the "worship of speed", state newspaper People's Daily said on Wednesday.
In March, China's government set a growth target of "around 5%" for this year, but the world's second-biggest economy has struggled for momentum largely due to a prolonged property sector crisis and local government debt woes.
[…]
The focus for the Chinese economy is on qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, the newspaper of the governing Communist Party People's Daily said in an editorial.
"If we do not break free from the 'worship of speed' and continue to expand blindly and launch projects indiscriminately, even if we temporarily boost growth, it will come at the cost of exhausting future growth potential," the editorial said.
"After hard work, it is acceptable to be a little to the left or a little to the right of 5%," it added.
China Services Expansion Cools Off Despite Recent Stimulus Push (Bloomberg)
China’s services activity expanded less than a month earlier, a private survey showed, a sign that consumer demand remains sluggish despite Beijing’s recent stimulus push.
The Caixin China services purchasing managers’ index fell to 51.5 in November, versus 52.0 the previous month, according to a statement released by Caixin and S&P Global on Wednesday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 52.4. Any reading above 50 suggests an expansion.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for November (CNBC)
China’s manufacturing activity continued to expand among smaller manufacturers in November, signaling that the country’s recent stimulus efforts have already helped to lift certain sectors of its ailing economy, according to a private survey released Monday.
The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing manager’s index came in at 51.5, beating the median estimate of 50.5 in a Reuters poll. This also marks the second month in a row that the official reading has stayed above the key 50 level, which separates growth from contraction.
“Central to the latest advancement in manufacturing sector conditions was greater new business inflows,” said Caixin Insight Group’s senior economist Wang Zhe.
China’s 10-Year Yield Falls Toward Record 2% on Central Bank Easing Bets (Bloomberg)
China’s 10-year yield dropped past the key psychological milestone of 2% and was at a record low, as traders ramped up wagers that authorities would ease monetary policy further to bolster the weak economy.
After declining for a fifth straight week, the benchmark yield dropped four basis points to 1.9775%. The 30-year yield also declined four basis points to 2.16%, after falling below its Japanese counterpart for the first time in about two decades last month.
Investors’ enthusiasm about Chinese bonds comes as the latest slew of data, from improved factory activity to an entrenched housing slump, continues to show an unbalanced recovery in the world’s No. 2 economy. It also reflects concerns about the prospect of escalating trade frictions with the US under Donald Trump’s second presidency.
China’s yuan hits lowest level in months as Trump tariff threats roil currencies (SCMP)
Both the onshore and offshore yuan have weakened to their lowest levels in months against the US dollar, as the re-election of Donald Trump as US president has stoked fears of wide-ranging trade disputes and punctured an earlier rally for China’s currency.
As of Tuesday morning, the offshore yuan had dropped around 0.39 per cent, slipping to 7.3148 per US dollar and falling below the 7.3 benchmark.
Meanwhile, the onshore yuan weakened to 7.2975 per US dollar on Tuesday, its lowest reading since November last year.
China to give local products leg up in bids for government contracts (SCMP)
Products made domestically – no matter the nature of the manufacturer’s ownership – will be accorded preferential treatment in Chinese government procurement, including a 20 per cent reduction in bidding price, said the country’s Ministry of Finance.
Observers said the move is “new thinking” on the part of Beijing to revive domestic demand, promote local products and enable equal access for private and foreign businesses as both attempt to fully localise their supply chains.
The ministry announced the policy – and requested public comment – in a draft document released on Thursday.
“[We will] treat all types of business entities equally,” read the notice. “State-owned enterprises, private enterprises, foreign-invested enterprises and other entities shall enjoy equal government procurement support for their locally made products.”
China’s private firms, in dire straits, flag critical concerns in fresh survey findings (SCMP)
China’s uncertain economic outlook and subdued demand are straining the bulk of its private enterprises as they grapple with a volatile mix of fragile confidence and a pressing need for stronger policy support, according to fresh survey results from an independent research institute.
Private firms are also proactively recalibrating strategies to survive and thrive in the face of mounting derisking and decoupling pressures, according to the findings posted by Beijing Dacheng on its WeChat social media account on Thursday.
Among the 806 private firms surveyed in late November – most of them small and medium-sized enterprises scattered across manufacturing and service sectors – 52.6 per cent said the private sector was in a difficult situation, and more than 63.3 per cent said they had experienced losses or reduced profits.
Only 16 per cent of the surveyed companies planned to ramp up investment in the next two years. However, no comparison figures were provided.
“Private enterprises are still grappling with high operating costs, recurring payment arrears, and intense neijuan in certain industries and sectors, among numerous challenges,” the survey said, referring to the unsustainable state of intense internal competition, or “involution”, that leads to diminishing returns and stagnation.
China’s economic pressures create ‘ongoing concerns’ for British firms as hardships grow (SCMP)
British companies operating in China have seen the business environment grow tougher for a fifth consecutive year, according to a survey published by the British Chamber of Commerce in China on Tuesday.
A lack of robust stimulus packages contributed to 58 per cent of the 311 surveyed British businesses reporting increasing difficulty to operate in China this year, citing economic headwinds and intensifying geopolitical tensions.
A majority of British firms have been reporting the same difficulties since 2019, the chamber added.
Only a third of companies anticipated that revenues would increase in 2024, a decline from 45 per cent in 2023.
However, investment levels among British companies in China have remained stable, with 76 per cent of respondents either maintaining or increasing their funding plans, the chamber said.
Confidence of German businesses in China hits record low, survey finds (SCMP)
The confidence of German businesses operating in China has plummeted to a historic low, according to the results of a survey released by the German Chamber of Commerce in China on Wednesday, driven by intensifying competition from local manufacturers and slowing economic growth.
For the first time, “Made in China 2025” and “Buy China” have emerged as the top regulatory challenge for German companies, the chamber said, adding that German investors are calling for fairer competition. The two campaigns encourage Chinese consumers to opt for products made by domestic manufacturers.
The survey found that the second-biggest concern was local protectionism.
Among the 537 German companies surveyed in September and October, more than half anticipated a decline in their industry development assessment this year, and only 32 per cent expected positive developments next year – the lowest level since the survey’s inception in 2007.
In addition, 60 per cent of the companies surveyed said the economic situation has worsened this year, and a third anticipate further deterioration next year.
China completes full pipeline for Power-of-Siberia gas (Reuters)
China has built and connected the 5,111-km (3,175-mile) Power-of-Siberia pipeline to deliver gas from Russia's Siberian fields to users as far as the financial hub of Shanghai, Chinese state media reported on Monday.
The completion will allow the project to reach its full annual designed capacity of 38 billion cubic meters in 2025, roughly 9% of China's consumption this year.
Chinese builders added the last section, a 167-km line from Nantong to Luzhi in the eastern province of Jiangsu, around mid-November, completing the massive project seven months ahead of schedule.
GM takes $5B charge, cuts value of China joint ventures (AP)
The poor performance of General Motors’ Chinese joint ventures is forcing the company to write down assets and take a restructuring charge totaling more than $5 billion in the fourth quarter of this year.
The Detroit automaker said in a regulatory filing Wednesday that it will cut the value of its equity stake in the ventures by $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion when it reports its results early next year. In addition, GM will take $2.7 billion worth of restructuring charges, most of it during the fourth quarter.
The noncash charges will reduce the company’s net income, but they will not affect adjusted pretax earnings, GM said in the filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
AstraZeneca appoints new China head after long-standing executive detained (Financial Times)
AstraZeneca has appointed a new head of its China business, after her predecessor Leon Wang was detained by authorities in the country as part of a crackdown on the healthcare sector.
Iskra Reic will take over from Wang to lead the drugmaker’s business in the country and will be based at the company’s research and development centre in Shanghai, the company said on Wednesday.
The UK-listed group added that Wang was on “extended leave” while under investigation in China.
Australia’s Red Meat Exports to China Fully Resume as Beijing Lifts Ban on Final Two Companies (Caixin)
Beijing has lifted its ban on two Australian meat processing companies, paving the way for a full resumption of red meat exports to China, Anthony Albanese, Australia’s Prime Minister, said Tuesday.
His Australian Labor government welcomed the development, he said. It follows the lifting of suspensions on eight beef processing facilities over the past year.
BYD’s $1 Billion Turkey Factory to Start Production by End of 2026, Government Says (Caixin)
Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) giant BYD Co. Ltd. (002594.SH) is forging ahead with its $1 billion factory and research and development (R&D) center in Turkey, with production expected to start by late 2026, a Turkish official said.
The project has received all the necessary permits, and is expected to begin construction early next year at a site in western Turkey’s Manisa province, said Kaan Masatci, a project manager at Turkey’s presidential investment office, in an interview with Caixin last week.
Tech & Media
The Shapeshifting Evolution of Chinese Technology Acquisition (Jamestown)
The PRC’s acquisition of foreign technology takes various forms, both licit and illicit. Today, smuggling technology into the country—something that the CCP has proven adept at over many decades—is returning to prominence, complementing advanced efforts in cyberspace. Once these technologies are acquired, Beijing must rely on people who know what to do with them, which is why attracting talent remains a core part of its acquisition strategy.
The West frequently debates export controls, as instances of smuggling and diversion make them look porous and ineffective. However, Beijing’s constant complaints, coupled with the historical record of their use in the past, indicate that they are a useful tool for slowing the PRC’s access to technologies that can be channeled into the PLA’s military buildup. Irrespective of how effective the recent US export controls will be, smuggling may be about to go into overdrive, with HBM technology from South Korea the likely next target.
An Inside Look at China’s Hacking Competitions (China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe)
China has built a robust capture-the-flag (CTF) hacking competition ecosystem, driven by both government policies and private sector collaboration. CTF competitions are events where participants – ranging from students to seasoned professionals – take on challenges that mimic real-world security problems in two main formats: jeopardy-style contests, which focus on solving challenges like cryptography, reverse engineering, and binary exploitation; and attack-defense competitions, which simulate real-world scenarios requiring teams to protect their own systems while attacking others. The CTF competitions play a critical role in strengthening China’s cybersecurity landscape by identifying talent, fostering innovation, and promoting experiential learning, creativity, and strategic thinking.
Building Apple Products Has Become a Side Hustle for China’s Biggest EV Maker (WSJ)
Apple products say on the box “assembled in China,” leaving the mystery of who did the assembling. Owners of a new iPad might be surprised to learn one of the answers: China’s biggest electric-vehicle maker.
BYD, known globally as Tesla’s most formidable EV competitor, has a second business manufacturing electronics, and it has grown to assemble more than 30% of Apple’s tablets, according to industry executives and analysts.
The Chinese company said it had more than 10,000 engineers and around 100,000 employees dedicated to the “fruit chain,” the local term for Apple’s supply chain.
The combination of brand-name carmaker and contract electronics manufacturer makes sense to BYD executives, who say both businesses draw on the company’s core competence of making precision devices at low cost.
Apple’s rising dependence on two China-based contractors—BYD and iPhone assembler Luxshare—points to the difficulty of shedding Chinese manufacturing. The U.S. push to limit imports from the country is likely to expand in the second Trump administration.
[…]
For Apple, which abandoned hopes of making its own EV, working with BYD helps it diversify its suppliers away from Foxconn, the Taiwanese assembler that makes the most iPhones and iPads. BYD isn’t in line to assemble completed iPhones, according to industry executives and analysts, but it is taking a bigger role in iPhone parts such as the titanium frame.
From film promotion to micro-dramas, AI-generated videos boom in China (The Straits Times)
In recent months, China has experienced a boom in AI video-generation technology. Not only are start-ups like Shengshu attracting investor attention, but tech giants such as ByteDance and Kuaishou are also getting in on the act with their own video generators.
This boom is believed to have been sparked by the release of video generator Sora by US firm OpenAI in February 2024. The generator has not been publicly released for experimentation and testing.
Alibaba to sponsor Lunar Year Spring Festival Gala to reach China’s thrifty consumers (SCMP)
Alibaba Group Holding has won the sponsorship for the 2025 Spring Festival Gala show, China’s most-watched event of the year, as the e-commerce giant reaches out to consumers to regain growth momentum.
The Hangzhou-based company signed a deal with China Media Group (CMG), which owns state broadcaster China Central Television, to be the “exclusive e-commerce interactive platform” for the show, CMG announced in a statement on Tuesday. The partnership comes seven years after the tech giant last scored a similar partnership through its popular shopping platform Taobao. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.
Neither CMG nor Alibaba disclosed the value of the deal, but the gala sponsorship is often seen as a barometer of financial power and political standing, with blessings from Beijing. Several Chinese Big Tech firms jostled to sponsor the most-watched television broadcast in the world. The deal came weeks after Alibaba merged its domestic and overseas e-commerce operations to seek synergy.
Former gymnast sees surge in followers after ban is lifted (SHINE News)
Former gymnast Wu Liufang's Douyin account sparked both controversy and support over the past two weeks. After a ban was lifted on Sunday, the account, previously restricted for violating community guidelines, gained nearly 3 million followers in 24 hours, catapulting her total to over 5.5 million.
Science, Health & Environment
China Opens New Antarctic Station, Targeting 'Polar Great Power' Status (Newsweek)
China announced that its first atmospheric monitoring station in Antarctica began operations earlier this week, according to the local outlet China Daily, which could be a move to push the country towards becoming a "polar great power."
The National Atmospheric Background Station, which is part of the Zhongshan station, officially began its operations on December 1, to commemorate World Antarctica Day.
The station is the first of its kind to have been established in Antarctica for China, but the ninth of its kind outside of the polar region, according to the China Meteorological Association.
Not only will the station "bolster global response to climate change," but it will also provide "continuous and long-term operational observation of the change of atmospheric composition and concentration in Antarctica," the meteorological association announced.
China's move to boost its presence in the polar region could be part of the country's aim to become a "polar great power," which was something President Xi Jinping mentioned during a speech in November 2014, according to the Australian Policy Institute.
A Hubei TCM Clinic Promised to Cure Cancer. Then the Deaths Began. (Sixth Tone)
Officials looking into how a clinic lured hundreds with bold cancer cure claims have uncovered illegal practices, unqualified staff, and dangerous remedies linked to multiple deaths.
China Expands Access for Wholly Foreign-Owned Hospitals in 9 Cities (China Briefing)
On November 29, 2024, the National Health Commission (NHC) together with three other government departments announced the detailed work plan for the establishment of wholly foreign-owned hospitals in nine major cities, including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and the entire island of Hainan.
This is a prompt follow-up of the pilot policy released in September this year, which lifts bans on foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) engaging in cell and gene therapy (CGT) in selected free trade zones (FTZs) and permits wholly foreign-owned hospitals in selected cities.
This reform is part of a broader agenda to modernize key industries, including healthcare and telecommunications, by addressing growing domestic demand and encouraging foreign participation.
Environmentalists Sound Alarm Over China’s Relaxed Forest Rules (Caixin)
A new policy from China’s top forestry regulator has relaxed project approval requirements to prioritize economic development, sparking concerns from environmentalists and legal experts over the risks of sidelining environmental protection and contradicting higher-level laws.
The policy, issued by the National Forestry and Grassland Administration (NFGA) in mid-October, introduced new guidelines for projects involving the use of forests, wetlands and land that is turning sandy.
Arts & Culture
China Rejoices as UNESCO Recognizes Spring Festival (Sixth Tone)
The decision by the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) to add the Spring Festival holiday to a list of humanity’s cultural heritage has sparked an outpouring of celebration in China.
The holiday joined the ranks of dozens of Chinese traditions to be inscribed into UNESCO’s prestigious Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity list at a meeting held in Paraguay on Wednesday.
Liao Yiwu: The Storyteller (China Books Review)
Since the 1990s, Liao Yiwu has been gathering oral histories of Chinese experience, from the everyday to the extraordinary. Then in 2011, harangued by the state, he left China. How does a storyteller find new voice as a dissident?
This month we go back fifteen years. Soft Lipa’s Lotion is perhaps the most important rap album of Taiwan’s history and for the singles section, I picked a couple of things from then.
New Music 新唱片发行: Fazi 法兹, Ghostmass 大鬼众, Yepusa 野菩萨 (liveCNmusic)
Seminal Xi’an post punk outfit Fazi, a band that has been challenging themselves for well over a decade, surveys their long-winded career and their newfound lust for rock and roll on their latest album Oriental 101 w Future Prairie. Touching on every point of their career and their sonic palette - from the ethereal and sincere New Order-esque codas to their more mania-driven earworms that one can’t help but shake to, their latest reworks some of the band’s best (and often times underlooked) songs.
Rhythm of Life: The 93-Year-Old Chinatown Queen Who Couldn't Stop Dancing (Sixth Tone)
A star of the club scene in San Francisco’s Chinatown in the 1940s, Yee became a hit on the silver screen in China this year after the Nov. 5 release of filmmaker Luka Yuanyuan Yang’s debut documentary feature. The movie follows Yee’s troupe of elderly dancers as it embarks on tours of China, Cuba, and the U.S. in 2019. It was the first time Yee, who died in 2020, had visited her parents’ homeland since the 1980s.
However, the movie is no simple tale of Chinese Americans “imagining China” through traditional costumes and dance, “as that’s such a cliché,” Yang says. “Coby was much more than just ‘oriental occidental.’ She combined elements from diverse cultures — a cutting-edge thing to do even today, let alone back then.”
Sports
Antidoping Agency Froze Out Investigators Who Warned About China (The New York Times)
In the middle of 2020, the World Anti-Doping Agency’s investigative unit sent the agency’s top officials a report containing a stark warning based on an interview it had conducted with a doctor who had worked in China’s sports ministry.
The doctor claimed that China had been running a state-backed doping program for decades, a potential nightmare scenario for the Olympic movement, which was still recovering from a Russian doping scandal that had rocked the Games.
And while the doctor’s information was years old — she had defected in 2017 — it was specific. Among the ways Chinese athletes were cheating, she said, was by taking undetectable amounts of a little-known prescription heart medication, trimetazidine, or TMZ, which can help increase stamina, endurance and recovery.
The investigative unit’s decision to pass its warning up to the agency’s leaders was unusual, and the unit put China on a special watch list of countries to receive extra scrutiny, given the concerns raised by the doctor, who, the investigators felt, was credible.
The report proved prescient: Seven months after it was submitted to the antidoping agency’s leaders, 23 elite Chinese swimmers tested positive for TMZ after competing at a national meet in China.
But when the agency, known as WADA, learned of the positive tests, top leaders did not crack down on China. Instead, they sidelined the investigative unit, choosing not to tell its investigators and analysts that the swimmers had tested positive, ensuring the matter would not be looked into any further.
The decision by the agency’s leaders to keep its own investigators in the dark raises new questions about WADA’s response to repeated incidents of possible doping by Chinese athletes.
NBA to return to China with preseason games for first time since 2019 fallout (The Guardian)
The NBA will stage two pre-season games in Macau next October, its deputy commissioner said on Friday, marking its return to China after being frozen out for more than five years.
No NBA games have been held in China since two pre-season contests in 2019 after a tweet from then-Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey supporting pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
Ding Liren and Gukesh D play to seventh straight draw in taut world title clash (The Guardian)
Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju played to a seventh straight draw in their world championship match on Saturday after 2hr 35min, leaving the $2.5m contest deadlocked at 5-5 with five games to go.
The 32-year-old reigning champion from China repeated his opening choice from Game 6 with the London System, marking only the third time it’s been played in the 138-year history of world championship matchplay.
[…]
The competition resumes on Sunday with Gukesh playing as white in Game 11. Whoever reaches seven and a half points first will be declared the champion in the world title match at Resorts World Sentosa, an island resort off Singapore’s southern coast.
Events
Urban China Lecture Series featuring Philipp Demgenski — The Burden of the Past: Housing Expropriation and the Changing Priorities of Inner-City Redevelopment in Contemporary China (Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies)
December 10 @ 8:30 pm – 10:00 pm
Presented via Zoom
Under current Chinese leadership, inner-city redevelopment has shifted from a “demolish and rebuild” (da chai da jian) model to prioritizing heritage preservation (baohu) and “subtle redevelopment” (wei gaizao), with policies prohibiting violent evictions, requiring public interest justification, and promoting transparency in housing expropriation. Drawing on long-term ethnographic fieldwork, in this presentation, I explore how these changes have played out at the micro level of urban society in the concrete negotiations over housing expropriation and compensation in the old, former colonial town centre of Qingdao.
Bridges or battlegrounds? American cities in the US-China relationship (Brookings)
Thursday, December 12, 2024 @ 11:00 am - 12:15 pm EST
Attend in person or Watch Online
On December 12, the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and the Truman Center for National Policy will host a conversation on current and future city-level engagement with China to explore questions such as: How does an evolving U.S.-China relationship affect American cities, and how have cities adapted (or struggled to adapt)? What costs and benefits do local actors perceive when it comes to engaging with China? How should federal policymakers account for the needs and experiences of U.S. cities as they craft policy regarding China?
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