China: Year in Review 2023
China: Year in Review 2023
Looking back at the year as it unfolded
I wasn't planning on publishing any more posts this year, but couldn't help myself. As we bid farewell to 2023, I wanted to briefly reflect on some of the pivotal moments that defined China's narrative over the past year. From geopolitical and social shifts to economic complexities, join me in dissecting (some of) the essence of China's 2023.
Q1 (Jan-Mar): Dynamics of Change and Continuity
Early in the year, China faced the news of a historic change, marking its first population decline in six decades. On Jan. 28, a balloon suspected of being a Chinese surveillance device entered US airspace north of Alaska, the beginning of a story that would capture global attention. In March, Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented third term as the general secretary of China's Communist Party.
China records first population decline in 60 years
Q2 (Apr-Jun): Corporate Shifts Amid Global Tensions
After a tough couple of years of government crack down on private technology businesses, Alibaba grabbed headlines with its announcement of a plan to split into six groups. In late April, the expansion of the counter-espionage law underscored China's assertiveness in intelligence and national security matters. Amid a diplomatic tit-for-tat between Canada and China, raids on foreign firms became emblematic of geopolitical tensions. Against the backdrop of a historic heatwave, the local debt crisis intensified economic concerns, and following Blinken's pivotal visit to China, both countries committed to stabilizing their tense relationship.
Expansion of counter-espionage law
Canada and China's tit-for-tat and raids on foreign firms
Blinken visits China and historic heatwave
Q3 (Jul-Sep): Policy Shifts and Internal Dynamics
Midyear, the EU launched a policy to de-risk from China, a softening of its unofficial “decoupling” approach, and China's new Foreign Affairs Law was approved, making it, among other things, a legal requirement to implement Xi Jinping’s personal global outreach initiatives — the Belt and Road Initiative, Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and Global Civilization Initiative. Hong Kong issued bounties on self-exiled activists, expanding the hunt for overseas democracy activists. In the mainland, internal changes unfolded with Foreign Minister Qin Gang's removal, a surprise military shake-up, and Defense Minister Li Shangfu's disappearance.
EU agrees to de-risk from China and China passes foreign relations law
China’s new export curbs and Hong Kong issues bounties for self-exiled activists
Xi Jinping’s absence from G20, new Huawei phone, and iPhone ban
Purges and local government debt problem
First big holiday since end of zero-COVID and risk of miscalculation rises in South China Sea
Q4 (Oct-Dec): Global Pressures and Diplomatic Maneuvers
In the year's closing chapter, the EU intensified its de-risking efforts alongside the escalating US-China chip race. Following three years of detention on national security charges, Australian journalist Cheng Lei's release provided a moment of diplomatic respite, contrasting with the passing of former premier Li Keqiang. The political landscape witnessed the Party cementing control over finance while foreign investment turned negative for the first time since records began in 1998. In November, Biden and Xi met for the first time in about a year in San Francisco, on the sidelines of the APEC conference. Xi's call for stronger rule of law overseas and the South China Sea disputes with the Philippines set the stage for a complex end of year, which concluded with the resumption of US-China military contacts.
EU’s China ‘de-risking’ and the US-China chip race
Party cements control over finance, foreign investment turns negative, and Albanese in China
Xi urges stronger rule of law overseas and no third plenum
US-China resume military contacts
As we step into the horizon of 2024…
The geopolitical landscape holds daunting challenges for China and the world. The upcoming elections in Taiwan and the United States will undoubtedly shape the regional dynamics, adding layers of uncertainty. In addition, the ongoing disputes in the South China Sea are reason for concerns over regional stability, potentially erupting into flashpoints of escalation. Concurrently, the EU's de-risking efforts and heightened scrutiny on Chinese companies operating within its borders pose significant economic hurdles. On the domestic front, an unfolding demographic crisis, a dire economic situation, soaring youth unemployment, a historic decline in foreign investment, and the looming specter of a real estate and local government debt crisis present formidable obstacles.
As we stand on the cusp of what promises to be a challenging 2024, I extend my sincere gratitude to all of What’s Happening in China readers. Thank you for subscribing, for your trust, and for joining me on this journey of unraveling the intricate tapestry of China's unfolding narratives.
Wishing you all the best for 2024!