Xi goes on charm offensive in Southeast Asia
Amid an escalating trade war with the U.S., Beijing reaffirmed its message of free trade and opposition to protectionism
Welcome back to What’s Happening in China, your weekly China brief.
I hope you’ve had a great week.
Amid an escalating trade war with the U.S., Xi Jinping this week embarked on a charm offensive in Southeast Asia—his first overseas trip of the year—with stops in Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia.
Throughout the tour, Xi emphasized repeated themes: support for global free trade and warnings against protectionism. In Vietnam, he signed 45 cooperation agreements and met with the country’s top leader, To Lam—a meeting that prompted Trump to remark that the two countries were “trying to figure out, how do we screw the United States of America.” Similarly, in Malaysia and Cambodia, Xi signed dozens of memorandums and agreements while promising greater access to the Chinese market.
Meanwhile, Trump continued to say he wants to make a deal with the PRC and expects Xi to call. Beijing responded: “If the U.S. truly wants to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiation, it should stop using maximum pressure, stop threats and blackmail and seek dialogue with China on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit.”
Let’s jump into it.
— PC
Through the Lens
In Focus
I. Mr. Xi Goes to Southeast Asia
“The timing of the visit is extraordinarily auspicious for China, falling just in the wake of the announcement of Trump’s tariffs that have caused managed consternation in Cambodia and Vietnam ... and upset in Malaysia,” Astrid Norén-Nilsson, a senior lecturer in the Study of Contemporary South-East Asia at Sweden’s Lund University, said in an email interview on Thursday.
“Xi Jinping can now carry out the tour equipped with the moral authority and goodwill of a singularly constant friend and reliable trading partner.”
In Vietnam and Malaysia, Xi emphasized strengthening ties, particularly in trade and investment, and underscored the need to oppose unilateralism and protectionism and uphold the multilateral trading system.
A summary of the visit issued Friday by Cambodia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry barely mentioned the trade crisis, focusing instead on bilateral relations, though China’s state Xinhua news agency said Xi had discussed the same trade issues as on his previous stops.
Read: China’s leader ends Southeast Asia tour touting Beijing's reliability vs. US tariff threats (AP)
Related:
China Wants Countries to Unite Against Trump, but Is Met With Wariness (The New York Times)
US-China: Trump Plans to Box In China by Recruiting Other Trade Partners (Bloomberg)
China to host Indonesia for top-level diplomacy, defence talks in pivot to Southeast Asia (SCMP)
Full text of Xi's signed article in Vietnamese newspaper (Xinhua)
At United Nations, China to blast US for bullying, trade war (Reuters)
II. They’re gonna find out if you've been naughty or nice
Two months after DeepSeek, China’s artificial intelligence star, rattled Washington and shook Wall Street, U.S. officials are taking steps to crack down on the Chinese start-up and its support from America’s leading chip maker, Nvidia.
The Trump administration this week moved to restrict Nvidia’s sale of A.I. chips to China. It also is weighing penalties that would block DeepSeek from buying U.S. technology and debating barring Americans’ access to its services, said three people with knowledge of the actions who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Congressional leaders are also putting pressure on Nvidia. On Wednesday, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, which focuses on national security threats from China, opened an investigation into Nvidia’s sale of chips across Asia. It is trying to assess whether the U.S. chip maker knowingly provided DeepSeek with critical technology to develop A.I., potentially in violation of U.S. rules.
It is the first congressional investigation into Nvidia’s business. It comes as the Trump administration wrestles with how to carry out a Biden-era rule that limits the number of A.I. chips that companies can send to different countries.
Read: US Officials Target Nvidia and DeepSeek Amid Fears of China’s A.I. Progress (The New York Times)
Related:
Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge for H20 GPUs to China (CNBC)
Nvidia’s CEO makes surprise visit to Beijing after US restricts chip sales to China (The Guardian)
III. Trump, the U.S. and Taiwan
The key point of this review is to highlight that there is no unified theory for explaining the Trump administration’s statements or actions. Neither Trump nor his advisors can come up with a coherent explanation that ties Trump’s impulses into any semblance of a grand strategy. In fact, the Trump administration is comprised of a set of senior officials with divergent viewpoints on global affairs. Some advocate for America to rebuild primacy as a unipolar power. Others believe the United States must use its finite resources to prioritize protecting its interests in Asia. Yet others urge greater restraint in the exercise of American power abroad. There also are traditional business types who advocate for Trump to focus on getting better deals for American companies and workers.
Trump sits above his advisors as an arbiter between competing camps. Some days Trump will side with those arguing for prioritizing Asia. Other days he will be swayed by the need to restrain the use of American power abroad. Trump himself is not rigid or ideological. He is opportunistic and improvisational.
For Taiwan, this means there will not be any moment of clarity when clouds part and Trump’s designs for the future of Asia come into focus. In fact, Trump and his advisors will seek to keep Taiwan off-balance and uncomfortable as part of their effort to urge Taiwan to take on a greater burden for its own security. There are no appeals to ideological alignment or shared values that will sway Trump to support Taiwan. The most powerful argument to Trump is that his ambitions for reindustrializing America are not achievable without the critical inputs that Taiwan’s leading companies provide. On the flip side, Taiwan’s security also hinges on a strong relationship with the United States. This creates a dual dependency that both sides must manage for mutual self-interest.
Read: Ryan Hass On Taiwan: External uncertainty should concentrate minds on domestic compromises (Taipei Times)
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