Takaichi's landslide win strengthens Tokyo's stance on China
Supermajority signals tougher China policy as tensions over Taiwan rhetoric continue
Welcome back to What’s Happening in China, your weekly China brief.
Beijing reacted sharply in November when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, asked by an opposition lawmaker about “survival-threatening situations,” said a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could constitute “an existential threat” to Japan and potentially draw Tokyo into a conflict alongside the United States.
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded that Japan “must correct its wrongdoing at once and retract the unjustified remarks,” warning that “those who play with fire will perish by it.”
On Sunday, Takaichi, the first woman to serve as Japan’s prime minister, emerged from a snap election with a historic supermajority. Her conservative Liberal Democratic Party won 316 of 465 seats in the lower house of the National Diet, enough to override the opposition-controlled upper house.
This is the first time since the Second World War that any party in Japan has won a two-thirds majority on its own, giving the prime minister a mandate for a more assertive foreign policy, including toward China.
Beijing will now have to decide whether to continue its confrontational rhetoric toward Tokyo or adopt a more diplomatic approach. For now, however, when asked about Japan’s LDP landslide victory, Lin Jian reiterated on Monday China’s demand that Japan retract “the erroneous remarks of Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan,” while on Friday at the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that “sensible people should be cautious about Japan.”
Before we jump in, as this is our last issue before the new year, I’d like to wish you a healthy and prosperous Year of the Horse.
春节快乐！
— PC
Through the Lens
In Focus
I. Takaichi’s historic election
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s historic election victory is handing Chinese leader Xi Jinping a dilemma: Engage with Japan’s most popular post-war leader or continue a deep freeze with the US’s top ally in Asia.
Takaichi emerged Sunday from a snap election with a historic majority that gives her a mandate for a more assertive foreign policy, just as China ramps up pressure. Since November, when she implied in parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could prompt Japan to deploy its military, Beijing has imposed export controls and tourism curbs to pressure her to retract those remarks.
Chinese leaders must now must decide whether to maintain economic pressure on Tokyo, or find an off-ramp to the dispute. Takaichi has stated she wants stable relations with Beijing, but it remains politically impossible for her to retract her comments without appearing to compromise Japan’s security.
Several Japanese officials, who asked not to be identified speaking about a sensitive topic, said their hope is China will have little choice but to eventually re-engage because Takaichi’s strong domestic mandate means her administration will likely be around for the next few years.
At a press conference on Monday, Takaichi said Japan was continuing to communicate with China at “various levels” and would respond “calmly and appropriately from the standpoint of Japan’s national interests.”
Read: China’s Xi Faces Dilemma Over Japan After Takaichi’s Historic Election Win (Bloomberg)
Related:
China says its policy towards Japan will not be changed by one election (The Straits Times)
Why a resurgent Japan is good for Asia (Chatham House)
With eye on China, Koizumi stresses importance of rules-based order (The Japan Times)
